| 查看: 2678 | 回复: 32 | |||
[交流]
【Disccusion】If Gadhafi Loses Libya, The Future Is Unclear
|
|||
|
http://www.npr.org/2011/03/29/134949998/if-gadhafi-loses-libya-the-future-is-unclear March 29, 2011（NPR） Thanks to the bombing campaign now being led by NATO, the Libyan opposition has taken back the territory it had lost to forces loyal to Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi in recent weeks. While the rebels are still a long way from capturing Tripoli, the Libyan capital — or taking control of the entire country — many Western observers believe that Gadhafi's eventual defeat is the most likely outcome. That still leaves open the question of how the rebels, who are an inchoate group, might govern if they succeed in taking power. It's also not clear what role the international community might play in the aftermath. "The U.S. has made up a number of contingency plans, but none really looking ahead at how we can keep the country from falling apart," says Dirk Vandewalle, a Libya expert at Dartmouth College A Country Split In Two? It's possible that the situation in Libya will become frozen, with rebels controlling the east and Gadhafi remaining in power in the west. Such a scenario is "definitely conceivable," because the U.S., European and other outside military forces don't intend to remain engaged in the area forever, says Richard Downie, deputy director and fellow in the Africa program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies "That's something really serious to think about," says Micah Zenko, a fellow for conflict prevention at the Council on Foreign Relations who has been critical of the military intervention. "If it's like the end of most civil wars, it won't be Gadhafi falling. Most civil wars end with negotiations, with some zone under rebel control." Libya could be divided into two viable states. There's enough oil in both halves of the country, and small enough populations, to support separate economies. But a divided Libya would be predicated on Gadhafi's negotiating an end to the fighting. That strikes many outside observers as unlikely. Although there have been rumors of negotiations involving the Gadhafi regime, Gadhafi and his sons have shown no outward interest in surrendering power, or even a portion of the country. And the rebels are unlikely to be satisfied with Gadhafi remaining entrenched. Rebels also are unlikely to trust Gadhafi, says William Zartman, the former head of African studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. "I just don't see any effective negotiation with Gadhafi," Zartman says. "He is just so imbued with the sense of himself as the incarnation of the nation." [ Last edited by propanediol on 2011-3-30 at 12:27 ] |
回复此楼» 猜你喜欢
极限拉扯，如何抉择
已经有16人回复
-
40+中年人失业后，还能找到好工作吗？
已经有16人回复
-
人工智能虚构史料、伪造文献频现，多家期刊声明抵制
已经有4人回复
-
CsPbI2Br全无机钙钛矿SEM图像异常分析
已经有8人回复
-
用NBS溴化时溶剂除了CCl4外还有什么
已经有9人回复
-
申请科研项目纯靠实力能成功吗？
已经有12人回复
5楼2011-03-30 09:53:45
6楼2011-03-30 10:12:51
7楼2011-03-30 10:55:59
11楼2011-03-30 11:53:54
12楼2011-03-30 12:00:36
13楼2011-03-30 12:07:26
14楼2011-03-30 12:20:03
15楼2011-03-30 12:25:34
16楼2011-03-30 12:27:38
19楼2011-03-30 14:58:04
20楼2011-03-30 15:11:12
★
lppv(金币+1): it seems you know much about this issue or you think much about this. 2011-03-30 15:26:03
lppv(金币+1): it seems you know much about this issue or you think much about this. 2011-03-30 15:26:03
|
The battle, or so called "riot" ,in Egypt, Libya, Yemen, etc attract the attentions all over the world. Western world take this chance to control the muslim countries! What I am interested is that the leader in above mentioned countries take the power for 30-40 years. This is rare in modern society. The transition of power is not inevitable this time. |
21楼2011-03-30 15:21:08
22楼2011-03-30 15:33:20
23楼2011-03-30 15:40:03
24楼2011-03-30 16:51:22
bless 25楼2011-03-30 16:58:27
26楼2011-03-30 21:07:50
★
propanediol(金币+1):谢谢参与
propanediol(金币+1):谢谢参与
|
can you translate the first paragragh for me ? thank you i paste it here Thanks to the bombing campaign now being led by NATO, the Libyan opposition has taken back the territory it had lost to forces loyal to Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi in recent weeks. "to forces loyal "here , i can't understand |
29楼2011-03-31 10:32:19
30楼2011-03-31 11:38:30
33楼2011-03-31 12:03:09
简单回复
2011-03-30 08:40
回复
小木虫(沙发+1，金币+0.5):恭喜抢个沙发，再给个红包
2011-03-30 08:40
回复
小木虫(金币+0.2):抢了个小板凳，给个红包
propanediol(金币+1): 2011-03-30 15:30:47
propanediol(金币+1): 2011-03-30 15:30:47
2011-03-30 09:06
回复
propanediol(金币+1): 2011-03-30 15:30:52
wry33008楼
2011-03-30 10:58
回复
propanediol(金币+1):谢谢参与
zppzh9楼
2011-03-30 11:08
回复
propanediol(金币+1):谢谢参与
lala13410楼
2011-03-30 11:45
回复
propanediol(金币+1):谢谢参与
suifengpig17楼
2011-03-30 12:36
回复
propanediol(金币+1):谢谢参与
fangye041318楼
2011-03-30 12:37
回复
propanediol(金币+1):谢谢参与
liufawen27楼
2011-03-31 07:37
回复
propanediol(金币+1):谢谢参与
zppzh28楼
2011-03-31 09:59
回复
牛哥哥31楼
2011-03-31 11:52
回复
propanediol(金币+1):谢谢参与
shuiyang16332楼
2011-03-31 11:59
回复
propanediol(金币+1):谢谢参与