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[交流] 【Disccusion】If Gadhafi Loses Libya, The Future Is Unclear

http://www.npr.org/2011/03/29/134949998/if-gadhafi-loses-libya-the-future-is-unclear

March 29, 2011（NPR） Thanks to the bombing campaign now being led by NATO, the Libyan opposition has taken back the territory it had lost to forces loyal to Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi in recent weeks.

While the rebels are still a long way from capturing Tripoli, the Libyan capital — or taking control of the entire country — many Western observers believe that Gadhafi's eventual defeat is the most likely outcome.

That still leaves open the question of how the rebels, who are an inchoate group, might govern if they succeed in taking power. It's also not clear what role the international community might play in the aftermath.

"The U.S. has made up a number of contingency plans, but none really looking ahead at how we can keep the country from falling apart," says Dirk Vandewalle, a Libya expert at Dartmouth College

A Country Split In Two?

It's possible that the situation in Libya will become frozen, with rebels controlling the east and Gadhafi remaining in power in the west. Such a scenario is "definitely conceivable," because the U.S., European and other outside military forces don't intend to remain engaged in the area forever, says Richard Downie, deputy director and fellow in the Africa program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies

"That's something really serious to think about," says Micah Zenko, a fellow for conflict prevention at the Council on Foreign Relations who has been critical of the military intervention. "If it's like the end of most civil wars, it won't be Gadhafi falling. Most civil wars end with negotiations, with some zone under rebel control."

Libya could be divided into two viable states. There's enough oil in both halves of the country, and small enough populations, to support separate economies.

But a divided Libya would be predicated on Gadhafi's negotiating an end to the fighting. That strikes many outside observers as unlikely. Although there have been rumors of negotiations involving the Gadhafi regime, Gadhafi and his sons have shown no outward interest in surrendering power, or even a portion of the country. And the rebels are unlikely to be satisfied with Gadhafi remaining entrenched.

Rebels also are unlikely to trust Gadhafi, says William Zartman, the former head of African studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

"I just don't see any effective negotiation with Gadhafi," Zartman says. "He is just so imbued with the sense of himself as the incarnation of the nation."

[ Last edited by propanediol on 2011-3-30 at 12:27 ]

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