| 查看: 356 | 回复: 3 | |||
| 当前主题已经存档。 | |||
[交流]
【求助】谁能帮我下到这篇文章 ，并麻烦分析一下。或者帮忙翻译一下摘要。
|
|||
|
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 35, L17305, doi:10.1029/2008GL034903, 2008 12 May 2008 M = 7.9 Wenchuan, China, earthquake calculated to increase failure stress and seismicity rate on three major fault systems Shinji Toda Active Fault Research Center, Geological Survey of Japan, AIST, Tsukuba, Japan Jian Lin Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA Mustapha Meghraoui Institut de Physique du Globe de Strasbourg, EOST, Strasbourg, France Ross S. Stein U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California, USA Abstract The Wenchuan earthquake on the Longmen Shan fault zone devastated cities of Sichuan, claiming at least 69,000 lives. We calculate that the earthquake also brought the Xianshuihe, Kunlun and Min Jiang faults 150–400 km from the mainshock rupture in the eastern Tibetan Plateau 0.2–0.5 bars closer to Coulomb failure. Because some portions of these stressed faults have not ruptured in more than a century, the earthquake could trigger or hasten additional M > 7 earthquakes, potentially subjecting regions from Kangding to Daofu and Maqin to Rangtag to strong shaking. We use the calculated stress changes and the observed background seismicity to forecast the rate and distribution of damaging shocks. The earthquake probability in the region is estimated to be 57–71% for M ≥ 6 shocks during the next decade, and 8–12% for M ≥ 7 shocks. These are up to twice the probabilities for the decade before the Wenchuan earthquake struck. Received 5 June 2008; accepted 23 July 2008; published 9 September 2008. Keywords: Coulomb stress; earthquake probability; stress transfer. Index Terms: 7223 Seismology: Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction (1217, 1242); 7230 Seismology: Seismicity and tectonics (1207, 1217, 1240, 1242); 7221 Seismology: Paleoseismology (8036); 7200 Seismology. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Read Full Article (file size: 1214984 bytes) Cited by [ Last edited by 极度灵感 on 2008-11-26 at 13:29 ] |
回复此楼» 猜你喜欢
据说！出现这些情况，国基金会评本子会被拿下！
已经有19人回复
-
无人打捞，直接陪跑
已经有16人回复
-
地球化学论文润色/翻译怎么收费?
已经有241人回复
-
青C最后一年，散金祈福吧
已经有48人回复
-
定了定了，明天出结果！2025 国自然基金结果即将揭晓，查询攻略看这里
已经有107人回复
-
2025国家自然科学基金放榜时间，根据官方回应，8月15日基本没戏了
已经有5人回复
-
没中，有点难受，科研也许就到这了，回归生活吧
已经有15人回复
-
各位未来院士帮忙看看评审意见
已经有9人回复
-
《风吹过日常的缝隙》
已经有0人回复
2楼2008-09-13 21:30:59
3楼2008-09-13 21:44:44
Geochimica
木虫 (正式写手)
- 应助: 1 (幼儿园)
- 贵宾: 0.02
- 金币: 1745
- 散金: 42
- 红花: 1
- 帖子: 361
- 在线: 20.2小时
- 虫号: 440723
- 注册: 2007-10-27
- 性别: GG
- 专业: 生物地球化学
4楼2008-09-13 21:54:35
