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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 35, L17305, doi:10.1029/2008GL034903, 2008

12 May 2008 M = 7.9 Wenchuan, China, earthquake calculated to increase failure stress and seismicity rate on three major fault systems

Shinji Toda

Active Fault Research Center, Geological Survey of Japan, AIST, Tsukuba, Japan

Jian Lin

Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA

Mustapha Meghraoui

Institut de Physique du Globe de Strasbourg, EOST, Strasbourg, France

Ross S. Stein

U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California, USA

Abstract
The Wenchuan earthquake on the Longmen Shan fault zone devastated cities of Sichuan, claiming at least 69,000 lives. We calculate that the earthquake also brought the Xianshuihe, Kunlun and Min Jiang faults 150–400 km from the mainshock rupture in the eastern Tibetan Plateau 0.2–0.5 bars closer to Coulomb failure. Because some portions of these stressed faults have not ruptured in more than a century, the earthquake could trigger or hasten additional M > 7 earthquakes, potentially subjecting regions from Kangding to Daofu and Maqin to Rangtag to strong shaking. We use the calculated stress changes and the observed background seismicity to forecast the rate and distribution of damaging shocks. The earthquake probability in the region is estimated to be 57–71% for M ≥ 6 shocks during the next decade, and 8–12% for M ≥ 7 shocks. These are up to twice the probabilities for the decade before the Wenchuan earthquake struck.

Received 5 June 2008; accepted 23 July 2008; published 9 September 2008.

Keywords: Coulomb stress; earthquake probability; stress transfer.

Index Terms: 7223 Seismology: Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction (1217, 1242); 7230 Seismology: Seismicity and tectonics (1207, 1217, 1240, 1242); 7221 Seismology: Paleoseismology (8036); 7200 Seismology.

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