±±¾©Ê¯ÓÍ»¯¹¤Ñ§Ôº2026ÄêÑо¿ÉúÕÐÉú½ÓÊÕµ÷¼Á¹«¸æ
²é¿´: 2035  |  »Ø¸´: 9
µ±Ç°Ö»ÏÔʾÂú×ãÖ¸¶¨Ìõ¼þµÄ»ØÌû£¬µã»÷ÕâÀï²é¿´±¾»°ÌâµÄËùÓлØÌû

¸Âàààà

гæ (³õÈëÎÄ̳)

[ÇóÖú] 1stopt·Ö¶Îº¯Êý¹²ÏíģʽÄâºÏÔõôʵÏÖ£¿ÄÄλ´óÉñ°ï°ïæÍÛ%>_<% ÒÑÓÐ1È˲ÎÓë

ÎÒÏëʵÏÖ¹²ÏíģʽÄâºÏ£¬ÄâºÏº¯ÊýÊǷֶκ¯Êý£¬´úÂëÈçÏ£¬1stÌáʾ´íÎ󣬸ÃÔõô¸Ä°¡£¿
Parameter p1=[0,1],p2=[0,1],p3=[0,1],q1=[0,1],q2=[0,1],q3=[0,1],m1=[200,2000],m2=[200,2000],m3=[200,2000];
SharedModel;
Variable t,s1,s2,s3;
ConstStr f1=(1-exp(-(p1+q1)*t))/(1+(q1/p1)*exp(-(p1+q1)*t));f2=(1-exp(-(p2+q2)*(t-4)))/(1+(q2/p2)*exp(-(p2+q2)*(t-4)));f3=(1-exp(-(p3+q3)*(t-21)))/(1+(q3/p3)*exp(-(p3+q3)*(t-21)));
Function s1=if(t<=4,f1*m1,f1*m1*(1-f2));
Function s2=if(t<=4,0,if((t>4)and(t<=21),f2*(m2+f1*m1),f2*(m2+f1*m1)*(1-f3)));
Function s3=if(t<=21,0,f3*(m3+f2*(m2+f1*m1)));
Data;
1        20.8487         0               0
2        24.5239                0               0
3        28.8619         0                0
4        31.6105         3.7248           0
5        33.4164         5.8649          0
6        36.2999         8.5974          0
7        40.0655         13.262          0
8        44.9096         20.0698          0
9        49.2761         26.6406          0
10        53.4604         32.5423          0
11        58.0675         38.3975         0
12        61.6982         44.3234         0
13        65.3678         49.8503         0
14        68.7345         55.8777         0
15        72.2173         61.2881         0
16        75.0802         65.9367         0
17        77.7631         71.058           0
18        80.0713         74.9772         0
19        82.7039         79.4515         0
20        84.5582         84.7288         0
21        85.5965         91.0312         2.6856
22        86.5076         96.3746         8.046
23        87.1629         101.6473        13.2341
24        88.2711         106.0359        18.37
25        89.1458         109.7173        23.9631
Ìáʾ´íÎóÈçͼ

1stopt·Ö¶Îº¯Êý¹²ÏíģʽÄâºÏÔõôʵÏÖ£¿ÄÄλ´óÉñ°ï°ïæÍÛ%>_<%
1.png
»Ø¸´´ËÂ¥

» ²ÂÄãϲ»¶

» ±¾Ö÷ÌâÏà¹Ø¼ÛÖµÌùÍÆ¼ö£¬¶ÔÄúͬÑùÓаïÖú:

ÒÑÔÄ   »Ø¸´´ËÂ¥   ¹Ø×¢TA ¸øTA·¢ÏûÏ¢ ËÍTAºì»¨ TAµÄ»ØÌû

¸Âàààà

гæ (³õÈëÎÄ̳)

ÒýÓûØÌû:
2Â¥: Originally posted by dingd at 2015-04-21 16:22:12
ÓõÄÄĸö°æ±¾£¿µÍ°æ±¾¹À¼ÆÓÐÎÊÌâ°É

ÓõÄÊÇ1.5×¢²á°æµÄ£¬ÔÚÍøÉÏÏÂÔØµÄ
4Â¥2015-04-22 16:35:24
ÒÑÔÄ   »Ø¸´´ËÂ¥   ¹Ø×¢TA ¸øTA·¢ÏûÏ¢ ËÍTAºì»¨ TAµÄ»ØÌû
²é¿´È«²¿ 10 ¸ö»Ø´ð

dingd

Ìú¸Ëľ³æ (Ö°Òµ×÷¼Ò)

¡¾´ð°¸¡¿Ó¦Öú»ØÌû

¸Ðл²ÎÓ룬ӦÖúÖ¸Êý +1
ÓõÄÄĸö°æ±¾£¿µÍ°æ±¾¹À¼ÆÓÐÎÊÌâ°É
2Â¥2015-04-21 16:22:12
ÒÑÔÄ   »Ø¸´´ËÂ¥   ¹Ø×¢TA ¸øTA·¢ÏûÏ¢ ËÍTAºì»¨ TAµÄ»ØÌû

dingd

Ìú¸Ëľ³æ (Ö°Òµ×÷¼Ò)

¡¾´ð°¸¡¿Ó¦Öú»ØÌû

Root of Mean Square Error (RMSE):2.60117004744817
Sum of Square Error:507.456421180612
Correlation Coef. (R): 0.994238480761602
R-Square: 0.988510156627139
Determination Coef. (DC): 0.983664484562675
F-Statistic: 57.8021804603133

Parameter                  Best Estimate
--------------------        -------------
p1        0.0362000101964279
p2        0.0134735826950473
p3        0.0102873637928838
q1        1.78439163643402E-20
q2        2.06622404467458E-16
q3        1.06558757880781E-14
m1        200
m2        345.594129578441
m3        500.639111493919
3Â¥2015-04-21 16:26:04
ÒÑÔÄ   »Ø¸´´ËÂ¥   ¹Ø×¢TA ¸øTA·¢ÏûÏ¢ ËÍTAºì»¨ TAµÄ»ØÌû

¸Âàààà

гæ (³õÈëÎÄ̳)

ÒýÓûØÌû:
3Â¥: Originally posted by dingd at 2015-04-21 16:26:04
Root of Mean Square Error (RMSE):2.60117004744817
Sum of Square Error:507.456421180612
Correlation Coef. (R): 0.994238480761602
R-Square: 0.988510156627139
Determination Coef. (DC): 0.98366448456 ...

Âé·³ÎÊÒ»ÏÂÊÇÔõôÐ޸ĵģ¿ÒòΪÎÒÒ²ÓÐÆäËû¹ØÓÚÕâ¸ö¼ÆËãµÄ
5Â¥2015-04-22 16:36:25
ÒÑÔÄ   »Ø¸´´ËÂ¥   ¹Ø×¢TA ¸øTA·¢ÏûÏ¢ ËÍTAºì»¨ TAµÄ»ØÌû
×î¾ßÈËÆøÈÈÌûÍÆ¼ö [²é¿´È«²¿] ×÷Õß »Ø/¿´ ×îºó·¢±í
[¿¼ÑÐ] 289Çóµ÷¼Á +5 BrightLL 2026-03-29 5/250 2026-03-29 17:24 by zhyzzh
[¿¼ÑÐ] һ־Ը˫һÁ÷»úе285·ÖÇóµ÷¼Á +4 ÐÒÔ˵ÄÈýľ 2026-03-29 5/250 2026-03-29 14:49 by Miko19
[¿¼ÑÐ] 318Ò»Ö¾Ô¸¼ªÁÖ´óѧÉúÎïÓëÒ½Ò© Çóµ÷¼Á +4 óÆÐÐÖÂÔ¶. 2026-03-28 4/200 2026-03-29 11:55 by longlotian
[¿¼ÑÐ] 394Çóµ÷¼Á +3 ºÃʶàÄ¥¾²ºò¼ÑÒ 2026-03-26 5/250 2026-03-28 14:24 by ÌÆãå¶ù
[¿¼ÑÐ] 085701»·¾³¹¤³Ì£¬267Çóµ÷¼Á +16 minht 2026-03-26 16/800 2026-03-28 12:16 by zllcz
[¿¼ÑÐ] 292Çóµ÷¼Á +14 ¶ì¶ì¶ì¶î¶î¶î¶î¶ 2026-03-25 15/750 2026-03-28 08:45 by WYUMater
[¿¼ÑÐ] 266·ÖÇó²ÄÁÏ»¯¹¤Ò±½ð¿óÒµµÈרҵµÄµ÷¼Á +4 ÍÛºôºßºôºß 2026-03-26 4/200 2026-03-27 17:02 by zhyzzh
[¿¼ÑÐ] Ò»Ö¾Ô¸ Î÷±±´óѧ ×Ü·Ö282 Ó¢ÓïÒ»62 Çóµ÷¼Á +7 18419759900 2026-03-25 8/400 2026-03-27 16:38 by 18419759900
[¿¼ÑÐ] 08¿ªÍ·275Çóµ÷¼Á +4 À­Ë­²»ÖØÒª 2026-03-26 4/200 2026-03-27 14:12 by Delta2012
[¿¼ÑÐ] 315µ÷¼Á +4 0860Çóµ÷¼Á 2026-03-26 5/250 2026-03-27 11:23 by wangjy2002
[˶²©¼ÒÔ°] ±±¾©ÁÖÒµ´óѧ˶µ¼ÕÐÉú¹ã¸æ +6 kongweilin 2026-03-26 8/400 2026-03-27 10:18 by FF_16
[¿¼ÑÐ] 359Çóµ÷¼Á +4 ÍõÁ˸öéª 2026-03-25 4/200 2026-03-27 08:43 by ²»³Ôô~µÄ؈
[¿¼ÑÐ] 284Çóµ÷¼Á +11 junqihahaha 2026-03-26 12/600 2026-03-27 04:37 by wxiongid
[¿¼ÑÐ] 325Çóµ÷¼Á +3 Aoyijiang 2026-03-23 3/150 2026-03-26 20:46 by ²»³Ôô~µÄ؈
[¿¼ÑÐ] ²ÄÁϵ÷¼Á 5+4 ÏëÒªÒ»ºøÌÒ»¨Ë® 2026-03-25 10/500 2026-03-26 19:56 by ²»³Ôô~µÄ؈
[¿¼ÑÐ] ×Ü·Ö322ÇóÉúÎïѧ/Éú»¯Óë·Ö×Ó/ÉúÎïÐÅϢѧÏà¹Øµ÷¼Á +5 ÐdzÁuu 2026-03-26 6/300 2026-03-26 19:02 by macy2011
[¿¼ÑÐ] ²ÄÁÏÓ뻯¹¤304ÇóBÇøµ÷¼Á +3 Çñgl 2026-03-26 6/300 2026-03-26 18:03 by Çñgl
[¿¼ÑÐ] ´ò¹ýºÜ¶à¾ºÈü£¬085406¿ØÖƹ¤³Ì300·Ö£¬Çóµ÷¼Á +3 askeladz 2026-03-26 3/150 2026-03-26 09:08 by ¸øÄãÄã×¢ÒâÐÝÏ¢
[¿¼ÑÐ] ²ÄÁϵ÷¼Á +3 iwinso 2026-03-23 3/150 2026-03-25 11:29 by greychen00
[¿¼ÑÐ] 269Çóµ÷¼Á +4 ÎÒÏë¶ÁÑÐ11 2026-03-23 4/200 2026-03-23 21:25 by pswait
ÐÅÏ¢Ìáʾ
ÇëÌî´¦ÀíÒâ¼û