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TOPIC: ARGUMENT1 - The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.

"Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age."
WORDS: 446          TIME: 01:21:52          DATE: 2011/2/25 10:08:04

This memorandum claim that Nature`s Way will be most profitable in Plainsville. To support this claim the president points out that Plainsville has many residents who are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. He also cites various other evidence that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs, and some nearly closed health club has more members than ever. Careful examination of this supporting evidence, however , reveals that it lends little credible support to the applicant`s claim.
However the president fails to establish a causal relationship between the the high-time of plainsville merchants and the residents. He is failing to consider other possible alternatives to the sales of shoes and exercis clothing at hihgh time and the weight training always full.Such alternatives may include the fact that at that time the neighbor maybe go there to take part in these club and also maybe the vistors are more at there time than other time to buy the exercise things. THen the shoes,exercise clothing ,health club and aerobics classes`s high time may be coused by other alternatives not theresidents.
In addition,the prisident also commits the fallacy of "all thing are equal". The fact that happened on heath club and other stores is not a sound evidence to draw a conclusion that Nature`s Way will be most profitable in Plainsville. Because maybe the residents only like to go to the club, not like to buy the things in the Nature`s Way. The president also points out that the schoolchildren are participate in a finess for life program, so they will cmphasizes the binefits lf regular exercise at an early age. But the president assume without justification that the background conditions have remained the same at different times. These children who may be not love exercise at all be forced by the shool or the teachers. Thus it is impossible to conclude that the store will be most profitable in Plainsville.
To begin with, the validity of the previous experience is doubtful.Only through a short time`s experience is not prove the store will be profitable in plainsville.Maybe after some days, after everyone has the exercise products,they will not need to buy these things.Unless it can be shown that these merchants reports are representative of the future, the conclusion the store is most profitable is completely unwarranted.
In conclusion, the president has not convinced me that the Nature`s Way will be most profitable inPlainsville. To better evaluate the argument I would need more information comparing the store and the local clubs and stores. To strengthen the conclution,before any final decisions are made about building next new store in Plainsville,the president should evaluate all possible alternatives and causes.
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