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Abstract: It is very important to study the effects of climate change and human activities on shallow groundwater level (SGL) for groundwater resources planning and utilizing sustainably in North China Plain (NCP). Took Wuqiao in NCP for example, this paper attempted to study this effect using BP artificial neural network (BP-ANN). With correlation analysis method first, precipitation, irrigation and pumping were found to be dominant influence factors for SGL in this district. For the next step of scenario analysis, a BP-ANN regress model was then established to depict the nonlinear relationship among annual difference of SGL (AD-SGL) and the three influence factors mentioned above. Three scenarios were considered in this study, namely human activities changed only due to change in climate (S1), human activities re-changed independently based on those caused by climate change (S2), and climate condition in next 40 years projected by GCMs (S3). For S1, annual precipitation changed by and , and then annual irrigation and pumping volume vary with the precipitation accordingly. Another two BP-ANN models were built in this scenario to depict the precipitation-irrigation and precipitation-pumping mathematical relationships, with which we could calculate human activities induced by climate change.S2 were set to analyze the impact of independent-human activities on AD-GWL. For this scenario, annual irrigation and pumping volume would re-change -5% and -10% after climate-change-inducing changes in human activities in S1. For S3, future climate data were obtained from GCMS simulation results taking the consideration of the emissions scenarios of A1B, A2 and B1 (IPCC, 2001), and the two BP-ANN models built in S1 were also used to calculate climate-change-inducing changes in human activities. The results showed 1)For S1, when the range of annual precipitation change was -10% to 10%, the change in AD-SGL was from -0.72m to-0.03 m.(2)For S2, AD-SGL was less than that in S1 due to the consideration of reduction of annual irrigation and pumping volume.(3) In the emissions scenarios of A1B, A2 and B1 (IPCC, 2001), AD-SGL would be -0.02m,-0.04m and -0.01m respectively, which indicated that if active measures were not adopted,SGL in this district in next 40 years would be decline continuously. |
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