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Abstract: It is very important to study the effects of climate change and human activities on shallow groundwater level (SGL) for groundwater resources planning and utilizing sustainably in North China Plain (NCP). Took Wuqiao in NCP for example, this paper attempted to study this effect using BP artificial neural network (BP-ANN). With correlation analysis method first, precipitation, irrigation and pumping were found to be dominant influence factors for SGL in this district. For the next step of scenario analysis, a BP-ANN regress model was then established to depict the nonlinear relationship among annual difference of SGL (AD-SGL) and the three influence factors mentioned above. Three scenarios were considered in this study, namely human activities changed only due to change in climate (S1), human activities re-changed independently based on those caused by climate change (S2), and climate condition in next 40 years projected by GCMs (S3). For S1, annual precipitation changed by and , and then annual irrigation and pumping volume vary with the precipitation accordingly. Another two BP-ANN models were built in this scenario to depict the precipitation-irrigation and precipitation-pumping mathematical relationships, with which we could calculate human activities induced by climate change.S2 were set to analyze the impact of independent-human activities on AD-GWL. For this scenario, annual irrigation and pumping volume would re-change -5% and -10% after climate-change-inducing changes in human activities in S1. For S3, future climate data were obtained from GCMS simulation results taking the consideration of the emissions scenarios of A1B, A2 and B1 (IPCC, 2001), and the two BP-ANN models built in S1 were also used to calculate climate-change-inducing changes in human activities. The results showed 1)For S1, when the range of annual precipitation change was -10% to 10%, the change in AD-SGL was from -0.72m to-0.03 m.(2)For S2, AD-SGL was less than that in S1 due to the consideration of reduction of annual irrigation and pumping volume.(3) In the emissions scenarios of A1B, A2 and B1 (IPCC, 2001), AD-SGL would be -0.02m,-0.04m and -0.01m respectively, which indicated that if active measures were not adopted,SGL in this district in next 40 years would be decline continuously. |
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2楼2010-02-05 19:06:31
3楼2010-02-05 22:17:04
4楼2010-02-05 22:32:50
lengbingyu
金虫 (小有名气)
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5楼2010-02-06 19:40:02
6楼2010-02-07 19:11:39
改了一下，请大家指点指点，楼主自己再斟酌斟酌……
Arear(金币+10): 2010-02-14 12:02
Arear(金币+2): 2010-03-23 15:27
Arear(金币+2): 2010-03-23 15:27
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This paper presents a case study of the effects of climate change and human activities on shallow groundwater level (SGL) in Wuqiao in North China Plain (NCP) using BP artificial neural network (BP-ANN) in order to inform a sustained policy for the utilization of groundwater in North China Plain (NCP). An initial correlation analysis shows that precipitation, irrigation and pumping are dominant factors with respect to SGL in this district. These factors are then precisely calculated, with the help of a BP-ANN regression model, of their effects on SGL (AD-SGL). Three scenarios considered are human activities directly linked to the climate (S1), human activities changed as a result of the climate (S2), and the next-40-year climate condition predicted by GCMs (S3). S1 looks at three correlative annual variations between precipitation and the volume consumed by irrigation and pumping taken as a whole, between precipitation and that of irrigation, and between precipitation and that of pumping. S2 measures the annual impact of human activities on AD-GWL excluding what has been examined in S1. S3 obtains climate data from GCMS simulation, taking the emission scenarios of A1B, A2 and B1 (IPCC, 2001) into consideration, following basically the same method used in S1. The results are listed as follows: (1) for S1, the change in AD-SGL shifts between -0.72m to-0.03 m. as the annual precipitation vacillates between -10% to 10%; (2) for S2, the AD-SGL will become less than that in S1 due to reduced irrigation and pumping volume; (3) for S3, A1B, A2 and B1 (IPCC, 2001) will be -0.02m,-0.04m and -0.01m, respectively. The conclusion is that SGL in this district will decline continuously in the next 40 years if no efficient and effective measures are taken. 楼主及各位虫友新年快乐！ [ Last edited by jinjin1996 on 2010-2-13 at 00:39 ] |
7楼2010-02-13 00:32:11
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10楼2010-03-23 16:05:23