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[资源] 【分享】nature上关于气候变化的新文献

nature上关于气候变化的09年12月底的文献
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v462/n7276/pdf/nature08649.pdf
纳米盘链接：http://d.namipan.com/d/062d77c41 ... 5b510dff150b5a50a00

http://img.namipan.com/downfile/ ... limate%20change.pdf

The velocity of climate change
The ranges of plants and animals are moving in response to recent
changes in climate1. As temperatures rise, ecosystems with
‘nowhere to go’, such as mountains, are considered to be more
threatened2,3. However, species survival may depend as much on
keeping pace with moving climates as the climate’s ultimate persistence4,5.
Here we present a new index of the velocity of temperature
change (km yr21), derived from spatial gradients (6C km21)
and multimodel ensemble forecasts of rates of temperature
increase (6Cyr21) in the twenty-first century. This index represents
the instantaneous local velocity along Earth’s surface needed to
maintain constant temperatures, and has a global mean of
0.42kmyr21 (A1B emission scenario). Owing to topographic
effects, the velocity of temperature change is lowest inmountainous
biomes such as tropical and subtropical coniferous forests
(0.08 kmyr21), temperate coniferous forest, and montane grasslands.
Velocities are highest in flooded grasslands (1.26kmyr21),
mangroves and deserts. High velocities suggest that the climates of
only 8% of global protected areas have residence times exceeding
100 years. Small protected areas exacerbate the problem in
Mediterranean-type and temperate coniferous forest biomes.
Large protected areas may mitigate the problem in desert biomes.
These results indicate management strategies for minimizing biodiversity
loss from climate change. Montane landscapes may effectively
shelter many species into the next century. Elsewhere,
reduced emissions, a much expanded network of protected areas6,
or efforts to increase species movement may be necessary7.

[ Last edited by 所里的 on 2010-1-30 at 20:05 ]

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