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yexuqing木虫之王 (文学泰斗)
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Record sea surface temperature jump in 2023–2024 unlikely but not unexpected
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Record sea surface temperature jump in 2023–2024 unlikely but not unexpected 2023~2024年创纪录的海表温度跃升：不太可能，但并不意外 ▲ 作者：Jens Terhaar, Friedrich A. Burger, Linus Vogt, Thomas L. Fr?licher & Thomas F. Stocker ▲链接： https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-08674-z ▲摘要： 从2023年4月开始，全球海表温度在一年多的时间里处于创纪录水平，在2023年4月至2024年3月期间，平均比2015—2016年的记录高出0.25℃。这一事件的范围接近全球，强度前所未有，引发了人们的疑问：它有多罕见？气候模型是否能代表海表温度如此破纪录的跃升？ 研究组构建了基于观测的合成时间序列，表明在当前长期变暖趋势下，全球海表温度的跃升至少打破了之前的记录0.25℃，这是512年一遇的事件（205年一遇至1185年一遇；95%置信区间）。如果没有全球变暖的趋势，这样的事件几乎不可能发生。 通过对各种全耦合气候模型进行270次模拟，研究组发现这些模型成功模拟了全球海表温度的破纪录跃升，从而支持了这些模型在理解此类事件的特征、驱动因素和后果方面的实用性。这些模型模拟表明，2023~2024年海表温度破纪录的跃升是一个极端事件，之后海表温度预计将恢复到预期的长期变暖趋势。 ▲ Abstract： Global ocean surface temperatures were at record levels for more than a year from April 2023 onwards, exceeding the previous record in 2015–2016 by 0.25?°C on average between April 2023 and March 2024. The nearly global extent and unprecedented intensity of this event prompted questions about how exceptional it was and whether climate models can represent such record-shattering jumps in surface ocean temperatures. Here we construct observation-based synthetic time series to show that a jump in global sea surface temperatures that breaks the previous record by at least 0.25?°C is a 1-in-512-year event under the current long-term warming trend (1-in-205-year to 1-in-1,185-year event; 95% confidence interval). Without a global warming trend, such an event would have been practically impossible. Using 270 simulations from a wide range of fully coupled climate models, we show that these models successfully simulate such record-shattering jumps in global ocean surface temperatures, underpinning the models’ usefulness in understanding the characteristics, drivers and consequences of such events. These model simulations suggest that the record-shattering jump in surface ocean temperatures in 2023–2024 was an extreme event after which surface ocean temperatures are expected to revert to the expected long-term warming trend. |
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