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Rising to an Economic Power
  With expected rapid growth during the next 50 years, China will complete its transformation from a large developing economic entity to an economic power.
  China has attained the objectives of the first two steps of its three-step strategy for modernization since reform and opening-up policies were initiated in the late 1970s. In light of the strategic plan set by the16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) held in November, the country will concentrate on building a well-off society of a higher standard in an all-round way to benefit will over 1 billion people in the next two decades, and will have primarily accomplished its modernization program by the middle of this century.
  Given constant reference indicators, such an prices and the exchange rate of the renminbi, forecasts on China’s aggregate and per-capita GDP will reflect the dynamic changes of its economic aggregate and the level of prosperity of Chinese people in the world economy during different stages of modernization in the coming 50 years. Through analysis and comparison of related figures, we can clearly see China’s development course from a large economic entity to an economic power.
Promise for China’s Growth
  To accomplish the objective set by the 16th CPC National Congress of quadrupling the 2000 GDP by 2020 and basically achieving industrialization, China should maintain an annual growth rate around 7.2 percent during this period of time. In the following 30 years of transition from industrialization to modernization, an annual growth rate of 4.7 percent can be high enough to secure the quadrupling of the 2020 GDP by 2050.
  After more than 20 years of transition，the magnitude of fluctuations in the Chinese economy has been reduced by large margin，and its upward trend will continue over the next 20 years. Meanwhile, in the wake of increasing integration into the world economy, the Chinese Government’s macro-control capabilities will become more proficient. As a result, the country’s economic take-off through landing will be a continuous and gradual process, risking little possibility of massive fluctuation. During the 30 years after completion of industrialization, the regional difference in economic development and the existence of a vast, unified domestic market will continue to facilitate the country’s release of growth potential on the basis of accomplishing inter-regional complementarities of advantages, to ensure a considerable high growth.
  On this basis , we predict that the average annual growth rate of the Chinese economy in the first two decades of this century will be 7.5percent and 7.3 percent respectively, and that for the following three decades will be 5.5 percent, 5percent, and 4.5percent.
  After topping ＄1 trillion in 2000,China’s GDP is estimated to reach ＄2 trillion in 2010 and ＄4 trillion in 2020. It will amount to 2 trillion around 2035,equivalent to the current level of the United States.
  We also undertake initial studies of China’s population growth over the next 50 years with reference to the forecasts of research institutions at home and abroad. Assuming that the current population policy remains unchanged, China will have a population of 1.4 billion by 2010.Growth will peak around 2035, before beginning to decline. By 2050, China’s population is projected to be less than 1.6 billion.
  Based on this, China’s per-capita GDP will increase from ＄850 in 2000 to over ＄3,000 in 2020,a leap from the lower level of moderately developed countries to the front rank in this group. Chinese people will then be able to live a more comfortable life. The figure will exceed ＄10,000 before 2050, ranking China among high-income countries.
Economic Situation Worldwide
  The annual average growth rate of the world economy in the last 40 years of the 20th century was 4/45 percent. Noticeably, it showed a downtrend since the golden 1960s and 1970s, and fell to 2.6 percent in the 1990s.Behind these circumstances is a sharp economic slowdown of high-income countries, which account for approximately 80 percent of the world economic aggregate. On the other hand, it reflects the recession caused by debts and financial crises in some developing countries since the 1980s, and the painstaking restructuring of some economies in transition.
  The world will not resume its inspiring upward trend as in the 1960-1970s. During the first five decades of this century, the extensive growth mode will gradually give way to that of intensive growth, while the foundation of growth will be transformed from population growth and consumption of volume resources to innovations in institutions and science and technology.
  The manufacturing industry, a major stimulus to developed countries’ prosperity, that contributes nearly half of their GDPs, will be outweighed by the service industry, which will make up nearly 70 percent of their GDPs, while the proportion of the former will fall below 20 percent. An ageing population in these countries will also lead to a declined growth rate.
  While developing countries that achieved industrialization in the 1970s through the 1980s begin to enter the post-industrialization era, underdeveloped countries failing in this regard are being increasingly marginalized in economic globalization. Economies in transition are expected to attain a faster growth than before during the next 50 years. Nevertheless, since they constitute just 5 percent of the world economic aggregate, their achievement, considered a supplement to their low growth over the previous 20 years, will have little worldwide influence.
  Against the backdrop of an increasingly saturated global market in the next 50 years and fiercer competition, economic growth throughout the world will rely more on consumption than investment. In fact, investment over past years has led to a surplus production capacity. In the long term, the world economy will feature a low investment rate, low capital cost, low prices and low growth rate.
  Supposing the annual world economic aggregate will reach a level between ＄40 trillion and ＄43 trillion in 2010(calculated on the price level of 2000), in which China will make up 5.1-5.4 percent. By 2050, the world economic aggregate will be ＄110 billion to ＄140 trillion, and the proportion of the Chinese economy will jump to between 14 and 18 percent.
  The six biggest western economies are the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Britain and Italy. Studies show that the majority of them will grow at a rate lower than their long-standing average level in the first decade of this century for various reasons. Japan’s plague is its debt-ridden banking sector; Germany, France, and Italy have to bear losses for the integration of the euro zone; and Britain suffers from the sluggish economy of the zone. Compared with them, the United States will maintain a strong momentum in increasing productivity and raising the long-term growth rate, thanks to its superiority in science and technology and talented professional resources. The high elasticity of the factor market, in particular, will add to its latitude in coping with external changes and reduced the cost of structural adjustment, which are favorable to a steady growth of the U.S. Economy in the long run.
  The United States is expected to remain the biggest economy throughout the world over the next 50 years, accounting for about 30 percent of the world economic aggregate. Meanwhile, the importance of the other five developed countries is likely to decline as a result of the increasing prosperity of rising economies represented by China.
China’s Ranking in World Economy
  On the basis of the population growth forecast of the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization, we can estimate the per-capita GDP of both China and the world average. If China can achieve its modernization objectives by 2050,its ranking in the world economy will scale new heights, to complete the transformation from a large developing economic entity to an economic power.
  The projected indicators of this great leap will be: First, China’s proportion in the world economic aggregate will come to between 14 and 18 percent, equivalent to that of today’s Japan. With greater strength, it will then rank among the major powerhouses for the development of the world economy. Second, its economic aggregate, which was in the sixth place worldwide in 2000, will move to the fourth in 2010, third in 2020, and second in 2040. Third, if the world economy grows by 2.5 percent annually in the next 50 years, China’s per-capita GDP will exceed the world average level in 2050, materializing a 200-year-old dream of the Chinese nation to prosper the country and enrich its people. Even if the annual growth rate of the world economy reaches 3percent, the gap between China and the world average level will be remarkably narrowed, making its leap in this field an objective well within reach.
  Although there are some problems in the Chinese economy, they are byproducts of the country’s modernization endeavors. In pace with the continuous increase of its economic aggregate, its capability to solve these problems will be enhanced.

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