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linghuqian

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[ Last edited by linghuqian on 2008-4-10 at 18:51 ]
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1楼 2008-04-07 21:16:17
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xhzyyangyang

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linghuqian(金币+30,VIP+0):谢谢你　你的翻译很流畅　我学到了一些东西
First section:
Along with the financial globalization tendency and the money market undulatory property aggravating, the various countries' bank and the investor have received the unprecedented credit risk challenge, the international financial circles strengthen day by day to the credit risk attention, if is for the purpose of strengthening the credit risk management "the New Barthel Agreement" already in the Western developed country comprehensive implementation.The credit risk assessment method weeds through the old to bring forth the new, to manage the technology unceasingly just better and better, many quota technologies, support the tool and the software have put to the commercial use.The credit risk rating is under the credit relations complex market economy environment, by the independent social facilitating agency, to market participation main bodies and so on the enterprise, bond publisher, financial organ, its future completely, on time will repay the debt ability and may pay off a debt the degree to carry on the quality synthetic evaluation the service.The credit rating may provide fairly, the objective information, the investor may the reduction investment risk, is one effective credit risk assessment method.
Second section:
The enterprise credit rating became in the recent years finance domain a research hot spot, usually used the method had the essential factor analytic method, the multi-dimensional linear determination model (the Z-Score model), the multi-dimensional logical model (the Logit model), the multi-dimensional probability compares the return model (Probit return model), the neural network analytic method and so on.These models to evaluate to be listed credit rating to have certain help, but these methods also have some insurmountable problems in the practical application.The essential factor analytic method requests to appraise the human has the high comprehensive professional ability and the high specialized level.The subjectivity is strong, the risk factor appraisal is qualitative, sometimes the subjective analysis is not persuasive.
Third section:
The Z-Score model has the high distinction precision, but has several insufficiencies: One is this model request work load quite is big.Two is the Z-Score model has a very strict supposition, namely the hypothesis independent variable assumes the normal distribution, covariances and so on two group of sample requests, but in the reality sample data often cannot satisfy this request.
The neural network analysis method applies in the credit risk assessment merit lies in it not strict supposition limit, also has the processing non-linear problem ability.It can the effective addressing non-normal distribution, the non-linear credit appraisal question, its result be situated between between 0 and 1, in under credit risk weight, namely for violation probability.The nerve network method biggest shortcoming is its work randomness is strong.Because must obtain a good neural network structure, needs to debug artificially, consumes the manpower and the time extremely, therefore, caused this model the application to be restricted.Altman(1995) in draws the conclusion to the nerve network method and in the distinction analytic method comparison research to believe that, the neural network analysis method in the credit risk recognition and the forecast application, substantive has not surpassed the linear distinction model.
Fourth section:
Because this research is separated by the explanatory variable the variable, therefore cannot use the ordinary least squares method and the weighting least squares method carries on the estimate, because is not followed by the explanatory variable the normal distribution which in statistics requests, estimated by the ordinary least squares method and the weighting least squares method the coefficient standard deviation and the T-test value are not suitable for statistics the supposition examination.This article studies the question is the congenial level to be listed's credit rank division question, the rank has the process from BB to C which an evolution goes bad, therefore is one kind of accumulation multi-dimensional choice question.In multi-dimensional separate choice model, because the Probit model needs to carry on the appraisal to the multi-variate normal distribution whole, therefore its application is restricted, but logical distribution then suits in effectiveness maximization time the distribution choice, therefore applies many is the Logit model.
Fifth section:
Compares with the above method, the Logit model biggest merit is, does not need the strict supposition condition, has overcome the linear equation the statistical hypothesis restraint limitation, had a more widespread applicable scope.At present this kind of model use is common, but its computation process quite is complex, moreover has very many approximate processing in the computation process, this can affect inevitably the forecast precision.The Logit model may act according  to be listed characteristic selection to need the target, has the flexibility, simultaneously also does not have the subjective color which appraises.The dual dependent variable Logit model had the application in the company credit risk aspect, but its appraisal result accuracy is bad, cannot give the explicit rank level to the company credit.This article uses the accumulation multi-dimensional Logit model to subdivide the congenial level company, in the establishment quality synthetic evaluation target system foundation, through the principal components analysis extraction principal components, uses accumulates the Logit change, the multi-dimensional Logistic return, obtains the credit rank regression equation, then carries on the credit rating appraisal to the new to be listed.
Sixth section:
In order to this article uses the Logit modelling method to study the investor well to the congenial level company's investment choice, may the congenial level company's credit rank hypothesis be many kinds of ranks, but whether there is isn't the simple risk dual choice, this needs to use the multi-dimensional Logistic probability distribution theory, uses the multi-dimensional Logistic return method, establishes the multi-dimensional Logit model.Accumulates the multi-dimensional Logistic return model definition to be as follows:
Y* expression observation phenomenon intrinsic tendency, cannot survey directly, but epsilon is the error term.When actual observes the response variable to have the J type another time (j=1,2,…, J), the corresponding value is y=1, y=2,…y=J, and between various values relations are (y=1)< (y=2)<…<(y=J), then altogether has a J-1 unknown threshold.Or the dividing line calls the roll of officers and assign them tasks each neighboring category to separate, namely
Seventh section:
In the parameter estimation process, the first threshold μ1 is usually 0, like this may reduce a parameter estimation, because this kind of criterion hypothesis is at will, therefore starts or the conclusion in the discretionary order numeral all is feasible.Therefore, stipulated μ1=0 after, will have a J-2 mu value to need to estimate.Assigns x value the cumulative probability to be possible to indicate according to the following form that：
Had after the repeated integral distribution function, may use Logit to take to accumulates by the explanatory variable modelling correlation function, they will produce accumulate the Logistic return model.Accumulates the Logistic return to be possible to define is:
May see from the above equation, in accumulates in the Logistic return model, Logit is according to by the explanatory variable category order definition.In other words, the model occurrence ratio is through should occur compares in molecular the probability of event continuously to accumulate in turn forms.
If is had by the explanatory variable 3 kind of choices, then three Yuan Logit model available following probability formula expression
Three Yuan Logit model available maximum likelihood method carries on the estimate, obtains the parameter estimator with the Newton iteration method.
Eighth section:
Based on to be listed financial norm and the information integrity, the standards, this article chooses the Shanghai deep stock market 69 to be listed 2004-2006 year kneading board data is the modelling sample, 2007 data for forecasts the sample.Various financial norm, the enterprise information main origin in the world Hua Caixun information, the credit rank appraisal result completely uses the New China Far east China To be listed 2004-2007 year public credit rating (PI) announcement.
Ninth section:
The credit rating independent decision-making model supposition enterprise credit risk formation will mainly be decided by the enterprise finance condition, the enterprise credit rating usually transforms to the enterprise credit risk measure as to the enterprise finance condition measure.Unifies the congenial level to be listed the characteristic, had in the reference in the research literature foundation, this article chose the growth potential, business capacity, profit ability, debt redemption ability, the cash has flowed the target five aspects to weigh the enterprise the credit rating, established the quality synthetic evaluation target system, the altogether 21 targets took the explanatory variable.Considered has in front of the credit risk enterprise usually to display the development speed to be slow, even bogged down, has used weight enterprise development speed target 5, main camp service income rate of increment x1, net profit rate of increment x2, total property rate of increment x3, net assets rate of increment x4, each income rate of increment x5.
Tenth section:
Business capacity and the profit ability target reflection enterprise credit risk formation reason, has selected total property cycling rate x6, net assets cycling rate x7, goods in stock cycling rate x8, account receivable cycling rate x9, management cycle x10, net assets returns ratio x11, total property returns ratio x12, net profit rate x13, ratio of margin x14.As a result of property structure influence enterprise's profit ability, but the fund organization influence enterprise's risk and the fund cost, finally affect the enterprise whether has the credit risk, therefore selected some property structure, the fund structure target in the real diagnosis research had reflected the property, the fund structure to the credit risk influence, property ratio of debt to net worth x15, current ratio x16, speed ratio x17, the long-term property suited rate x18, interest safeguard multiple x19.The cash flows the target usually to be able the quickest reflection enterprise credit risk tendency, selects 2 targets, the management cash flows with the debt compares x20, the management cash current capacity and the net profit compares x21.
11th section:
In order to determine the above financial norm whether effective weight congenial level to be listed the credit risk characteristic, the correspondence did select 69 to invest the level to be listed 2004-2006 year kneading board data stochastically, carried on the single variable T-test to 21 financial norms, the examination result see Table 1.
Based on the T-test result, suits take the interest safeguard multiple and the long-term property rate as the example analysis.The interest safeguard multiple, may see from the average value data, the congenial level and the investment level to be listed's interest safeguard multiple average value existence big difference, simultaneously the twin tails T-test significance probability is 0.003, passed 95% significance level examination.The long-term property suits rate, may see from the average value data, the congenial level company and the investment level company's long-term property suits rate the average value difference not to be obvious, the twin tails T-test significance probability is 0.2593, through the significance examination, has not been able the effective discrimination congenial level to be listed and the investment level to be listed.According to this method, has rejected X10 and X18, finally chooses other 19 financial norm to take the explanation scalar.
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2楼2008-04-08 13:22:36
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xhzyyangyang

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12th section:
With former this kind of article research credit risk whether occurs uses the dual Logit model to be different, this article take the credit rank as by the explanatory variable, it has the accumulation, credit rank from BB to C unceasing drop.In this article is taken y three discrete values, 0 expression enterprise credit rating is the BB kind (including is evaluated in New China far east rating BB+, BB, BB- to be listed), 1 expressed the enterprise credit rating is B kind (including is evaluated in New China far east rating B+, B, B- to be listed), 2 expressed the enterprise credit rank is C kind (including is evaluated in New China far east rating CCC, CC, C to be listed).Uses the SPSS10.0 establishment to accumulate the multi-dimensional Logisitc return model.
13th section:
According to each observation quantity biggest probability value its classification, may compare like this observes and forecasts the quantity.Some 9 congenial ranks are 0 to be listed by the right distribution, some 6 congenial ranks are 1 to be listed by the right distribution, some 2 congenial ranks are 2 to be listed by the correct classification.Generally speaking, the near % voter can by the correct classification.The first kind of rating forecast probability is high, this and each group does not wait for quantity the observation data related, according to model statistics, regardless of the model suits the observation data, more data could enter by the minute contain the big sample data quantity in the group.
14th section:
The congenial level to be listed credit rating real diagnosis research may guide the investor investment and with a clear goal implementation government to the stock market monitoring.The credit rating is one kind solves the asymmetrical information question method.Under the credit rating, must have the effective rating technology.This article in takes responsibility in the ingredient analysis foundation to the explanatory variable, establishes accumulates three Yuan Logit models.With former compares to be listed's credit risk judgment dual model, can the better judgment this congenial level company's credit risk condition.
15th section:
Model forecast ability is good, had achieved in particular to 0 rank forecasts 90% rate of accuracy, the entire forecast sample rate of accuracy have achieved 77.3%.This model considered in the explanatory variable choice the congenial level to be listed the characteristic, has chosen the effective discrimination congenial level to be listed and the investment level to be listed target through the independent sample T-test.But in sample gathering, the target selection and the data processing aspect still had the limitation. At the same time, because the correlation credit appraised the organization the rating result not easy to gain, this article to the New China far east announcement congenial level to be listed real diagnosis analysis, has only affected the findings representation.If further studies, should as study the sample establishment model take the Shanghai deep two city completely congenial level to be listed.On the other hand, besides financial data if can introduce classified targets and so on entrepreneur ability, staff quality, profession characteristic and policy influence can enable the model to have the persuasive power.

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3楼2008-04-08 13:23:02
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questwz

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The first paragraph:
With the globalization of finance trends and financial market volatility of the fierce, which makes national banks and investors suffered from the unprecedented challenges of credit risk, credit risk to the international financial community's growing concern, such as credit risk management aimed at strengthening the "new Basel Accord "has been fully implemented in the developed Western countries. Credit risk assessment approach continues to introduce new management techniques are improving daily, many quantitative techniques, tools and software support has been put into commercial applications. Credit risk in the credit rating of the complex relationship between a market economy environment, with an independent intermediary organizations and enterprises, bond issuers, financial institutions and other market participants, completely on its future, arranging repayment ability and its debt level a comprehensive assessment of business. Credit rating can provide fair and objective information, investors can to reduce investment risks, is an effective credit risk assessment methodologies
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4楼2008-04-09 17:46:45
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questwz

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Paragraph 11

In order to determine the financial indicators to measure the effectiveness of the listed companies speculative grade credit risk characteristics of the corresponding randomly selected 69 investment-grade companies listed in the 2004-2006 panel data on 21 indicators of the financial variables T-test, test The results shown in Table 1.
T based on the test results in order to protect interest and long-term assets for multiple rate as an example of. Interest protection multiples of the mean data can be seen from the speculative-and investment-grade companies listed on the average multiple security interest there is a big difference, and the double-tail T-test was significant probability of 0.003, adopted 95% of the significant level of inspection . Rate for long-term assets, can be seen from the mean data, speculative companies and investment-grade assets for the long-term average rate not obvious differences, double tail T-test was significant probability of 0.2593, did not pass the test was significant and can not effectively distinguish between the speculation - listed companies and investment-grade listed companies. This method, the exclusion of X10 and X18, and ultimately choose the remaining 19 financial indicators as a scalar explained.
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5楼2008-04-09 17:47:27
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questwz

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8th paragraph:
Based on the listed company's financial indicators and the integrity of the information, normative, we choose the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange 69 listed companies for the period 2004-2006 panel data modeling sample, the data for 2007 forecast samples. The financial targets, Reuters enterprise information comes mainly from information on the credit rating of all the evaluation results by Xinhua Far East China's listed companies, 2004-2007, the public credit ratings (PI) Notice.
.
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6楼2008-04-09 17:48:08
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