金虫 (正式写手)
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kongkeke: 金币+10, ESEPI+1, good point 2014-07-10 10:29:34
00waterh: 回帖置顶 2014-07-11 18:27:13
wow, you should put it as a topic. It is worth discussing.
Maybe once you fail in doing something, you will subconsciously think that you will fail again when you are faced with the same thing. I think this is a inherent nature of human beings----self-protection or risk minimization, rather than a lack of confidence. We are born with this kind of feeling. for example, once we are bitten by a snake, we will be afraid of all rope-like things.
Like the Bayesian risk minimization in our discipline, we always want the risk as small as possible. So if we come up against the same thing which we failed to do, we have two choices: do it again or let it go. If you try to do it again, you may fail again. You will suffer doubly and have a even low morale. The previous failure will subtly affect our decision, our feelings as well as our thinking. Let's see this from the perspective of probability. If we do not have any priori knowledge, we think the success and the failure have the same probability. but if we know you have 1 failure and 0 success, we incline to think that the failure will have a larger probability. This kind of thinking is popular in our daily living, such as the recent football gamble.
That's all from me right now. glad to hear different opinions from you.
Correct me if I make any mistake. Thank you in advance. |
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