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北京石油化工学院2026年研究生招生接收调剂公告
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qwer2006

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[交流] 【求助】具有20a周期变化的气候系统有哪些?

最近我用红色噪声功率谱分析了一个500a的时间序列数据,结果它只有一个非常显著的准20a的周期,不知该怎么解释它,查了一些文献,知道NAO/AO似乎有类似的周期,但也不是最显著的,所以想请教一下,北半球通常具有20a周期的气候系统有哪些?

[ Last edited by wbaishi on 2008-12-19 at 12:29 ]
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flyindusk

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Swinson DB, Koyama H, Saito T. 1986. Long-term variations in north-south asymmetry of solar activity. Solar Physics 106(1): 35-42.

Abstract  This paper reports the results of a study of the N-S asymmetry in the flare index using the results of Knoscaronka (1985) combined with our results for the solar cycles 17 to the current cycle 22. By comparing the time-variation of the asymmetry curve with the solar activity variation of the 11-year cycle, we have found that the flare index asymmetry curve is not in phase with the solar cycle and that the asymmetry peaks during solar minimum. A periodic behaviour in the N-S asymmetry appears: the activity in one hemisphere is more important during the ascending part of the cycle whereas during the descending part the activity becomes more important in the other hemisphere. The dominance of flare activity in the southern hemisphere continues during cycle 22 and, according to our findings, this dominance will increase gradually during the following cycle 23.
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4楼2008-02-29 10:17:27
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flyindusk

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检查一下你的做redfit分析时的参数设置

比如ofac hifac rhopre & n50.

还有,序列通过Monte-Carlo检验了么?显著否?

[ Last edited by flyindusk on 2008-2-28 at 16:23 ]
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2楼2008-02-28 16:22:14
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qwer2006

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参数我试了好几个,结果都相差甚小,都是准20a的周期,且都通过了99%的置信度检验,也通过了99%的MC检验。

[ Last edited by qwer2006 on 2008-2-28 at 22:47 ]
3楼2008-02-28 22:45:07
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qwer2006

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谢谢flyindusk,我也想过太阳的活动的周期,但和我的内容联系不起来。
5楼2008-02-29 12:53:57
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