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【分享】Describing Scientifi c Uncertainties in Climate Change【已搜无重复】
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Executive summary ......1 1 Introduction .............5 1.1 Genesis of the workshop and issues covered ..................................................................................................5 1.2 Organization of the workshop .........................................................................................................................7 2 Using Information in an Uncertain World ................................................................................................9 2.1 Evolution in the communication and use of scientifi c uncertainties – G. McBean ........................................9 2.2 Helping UK decision-makers deal with climate risks and uncertainties: The UKCIP approach – R. Connell .......................9 2.3 A reinsurer’s view of weather and climate – S. Smith ..................................................................................11 2.4 Living with uncertainty: From the precautionary principle to the methodology of ongoing normative assessment – A. Grinbaum and J.-P. Dupuy ..................................................................................................11 2.5 An overview of some issues in uncertainty and climate change – G. Morgan .............................................12 3 Thematic Sessions 15 3.1 Determining and describing uncertainty in socio-economic factors .............................................................15 3.1 Determining and describing uncertainty in observed climate change and its effects ...................................18 3.2 Effective communication of uncertainty .......................................................................................................23 3.3 Determining and describing uncertainties in projections of climate change and its effects .........................28 4 Working Group Sessions ......................................................................................................................33 4.1 Working Group I perspective ........................................................................................................................33 4.2 Working Group II perspective .......................................................................................................................34 4.3 Working Group III perspective .....................................................................................................................35 5 Conclusions ..........37 6 References ............39 Annex 1: A Concept Paper for the AR4 Cross Cutting Theme: Uncertainties and Risk ............................41 Annex 2: Workshop Program .....................................................................................................................57 Annex 3: Extended Abstracts .....................................................................................................................63 Annex 4: List of Participants .....................................................................................................................135 Table of Contents http://www.isload.com.cn/store/kur55h4kukzxn/IPCC Workshop on Describing Scientific Uncertainties in Climate Change to Support Analysis of Risk and of Options.pdf/downlaod [ Last edited by wmxcau on 2007-11-19 at 11:07 ] |
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