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[×ÊÔ´] ¡¾·ÖÏí¡¿Describing Scientifi c Uncertainties in Climate Change¡¾ÒÑËÑÎÞÖØ¸´¡¿

Executive summary ......1
1 Introduction .............5
1.1 Genesis of the workshop and issues covered ..................................................................................................5
1.2 Organization of the workshop .........................................................................................................................7
2 Using Information in an Uncertain World ................................................................................................9
2.1 Evolution in the communication and use of scientifi c uncertainties ¨C G. McBean ........................................9
2.2 Helping UK decision-makers deal with climate risks and uncertainties: The UKCIP approach ¨C
R. Connell .......................9
2.3 A reinsurer¡¯s view of weather and climate ¨C S. Smith ..................................................................................11
2.4 Living with uncertainty: From the precautionary principle to the methodology of ongoing normative
assessment ¨C A. Grinbaum and J.-P. Dupuy ..................................................................................................11
2.5 An overview of some issues in uncertainty and climate change ¨C G. Morgan .............................................12
3 Thematic Sessions 15
3.1 Determining and describing uncertainty in socio-economic factors .............................................................15
3.1 Determining and describing uncertainty in observed climate change and its effects ...................................18
3.2 Effective communication of uncertainty .......................................................................................................23
3.3 Determining and describing uncertainties in projections of climate change and its effects .........................28
4 Working Group Sessions ......................................................................................................................33
4.1 Working Group I perspective ........................................................................................................................33
4.2 Working Group II perspective .......................................................................................................................34
4.3 Working Group III perspective .....................................................................................................................35
5 Conclusions ..........37
6 References ............39
Annex 1: A Concept Paper for the AR4 Cross Cutting Theme: Uncertainties and Risk ............................41
Annex 2: Workshop Program .....................................................................................................................57
Annex 3: Extended Abstracts .....................................................................................................................63
Annex 4: List of Participants .....................................................................................................................135
Table of Contents
http://www.isload.com.cn/store/kur55h4kukzxn/IPCC Workshop on Describing Scientific Uncertainties in Climate Change to Support Analysis of Risk and of Options.pdf/downlaod

[ Last edited by wmxcau on 2007-11-19 at 11:07 ]
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