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ARGUMENT 059 并发的现象/行为没有证据证明其相关性，论断太武断——健康 59.The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper. "According to the available medical records, the six worst worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years occurred in 1729, 1830, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. These were all years with heavy sunspot activity—that is, years when the Earth received significantly more solar energy than in normal years. People at particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun." 题目翻译：根据现有的医疗记录，过去300年中最严重的六次世界范围的流感大流行分别发生于1729，1930，1918，1957，和1977。这些都是太阳黑子活动剧烈的年份，即：地球所接收的太阳能比平常年份多的多的年份。因此那些特别容易换流感的人群应该避免于长时间暴露于日光下。 分析：1.论断的前提不一定成立。前提是长时间晒太阳会使人容易感冒，论者没有为此提供任何资料。 2.论断的论据没有说服力。首先这几次流感年里是否有其他原因造成了流感，其次是否太阳斑会带其他的气候变化，比如气温易波动，并不是因为能量多就造成。第三，过去300年里是否只有这六年太阳斑活跃，是否还有活跃的年份但没有发生流感。 3.论断的结论武断。如果晒太阳使人容易感冒，是否就应该避免。医生经常建议多晒太阳对身体有利，是否有两者的调和方法。 [ Last edited by hummer on 2006-6-13 at 23:42 ] |
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纯属个人意见 
7楼2006-06-14 02:51:08
hummer
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OUTLINE: First paragraph: While the argument sounds reasonable on the surface, a close scrutiny would reveal it is flawed with some unwarranted assumptions that render it unconvincing. Second paragraph: First of all, the author assumes that the six worst worldwide flu epidemics were directly attributable to sunspot activity. Third paragraph: Second, the credibility of the medical records is open to doubt. Last paragraph: To summarize, to strength the argument, the author need to provide more detailed information and data to prove the sunspot activity and flu epidemics are connected with closely. |
2楼2006-06-13 23:42:32
hummer
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ARGUMENT59: (字数512) The arguer makes a conclusion that people at particular risk for the flu should avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun. While the argument sounds reasonable on the surface, a close scrutiny would reveal it is flawed with some unwarranted assumptions that render it unconvincing. First of all, the author assumes that the six worst worldwide flu epidemics were directly attributable to sunspot activity. Although we admit that sunspot activity will brings about negative and severe influence, but no evidence provided shows that sunspot activity and flu epidemics are cause-and-effect relationship. It is entirely possible that other factors--such as bad weather, virus, and so on--result in flu epidemics. Moreover the author fails to provide any data about that during other years with heavy sunspot activity whether flu epidemics existed or not. If not, it is obvious that heavy sunspot activity is not the only one cause or not the cause of flu epidemics. In short, without more detailed information on the correlations between flu epidemics and heavy sunspot activity and status when other years with such an activity, the author cannot convince that flu epidemics resulted from heavy sunspot activity Second, the credibility of the medical records is open to doubt. The arguer provides no evidence concerning the number of the available medical records. The smaller the number is, the less reliable they are. Since the arguer makes a claim about the worldwide flu epidemics, the medical records cited should be able to represent the general situation all over the world. However, we do not see any sign of the procedure of random choice of medical records. In all likelihood, those cited medical records are only about one region or only several regions that are close to each other. This case, if true, will undermines the conclusion of the arguer. In addition, the five years cited are too small a portion of the past 300 years. In order to make the argument more convincing, the arguer would have to find out more information regarding the flu epidemics in other years. Last but not the least, the assumption that avoiding prolonged exposure to the sun is effective to prevent from flu is also unfounded. Common sense tells us that a proper exposure to the Sun is necessary for health and people at different age have different demand for sunshine. Lacking scientific information about the relationship between exposure to the Sun and health, we cannot accept the arguer's points. Besides, since we are not informed of the reasons why people are at particular risk for the flu, it's questionable whether the point made by the arguer will apply to them. There might be other better ways for people at risk for the flu to keep healthy, such as doing exercise, taking vitamins. To summarize, to strength the argument, the author need to provide more detailed information and data to prove the sunspot activity and flu epidemics are connected with closely. To better convince the readers, the author should draw different conclusion based on different the extent of the Sun, instead of superficial generalizations. |
3楼2006-06-13 23:43:08
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4楼2006-06-13 23:46:01
