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To  maximise  the  excess  of  benefit  over  hazard  in primary  prevention,  most  current  guidelines3¨C5    recom- mend that aspirin be given to those with risk of coronary heart  disease  exceeding  a  particular  threshold.  These guidelines  implicitly  assume,  however,  either  that  the absolute risk of bleeding remains approximately constant irrespective of risk of coronary heart disease,4,5  or that it depends  solely  on  age,3    whereas  the  present  analyses showed  that  other  risk  factors  for  this  disease  are  also risk factors for bleeding (table 3). As a result, even for people  at  moderately  increased  risk  of  coronary  heart disease,  the  major  absolute  benefits  and  hazards  of adding  aspirin  to  a  statin-based  primary  prevention regimen could still be approximately evenly balanced, as is suggested by the calculations in figure 7.
A non-fatal stroke or heart attack is more likely to result in long-term disability than is a non-fatal gastrointestinal
(or  other  extracranial)  bleed,  but  in  primary  prevention the net absolute reduction in disabling or fatal occlusive events is likely to be small, and at least partially offset by a small  increase  in  serious  intracranial  and  extracranial bleeds. Thus, although it might cost little to add aspirin to any  other  drugs  that  are  being  used  for  the  primary prevention of vascular disease, the additional effectiveness against fatal or disabling outcomes has not been reliably demonstrated for men or women of any age who do not yet  have  any  relevant  disease  (and,  if  effectiveness  is uncertain  then  detailed  estimates  of  cost-effectiveness29 are  of  limited  relevance).  Moreover,  drug  safety  (like vaccine safety) is of particular importance in public health recommendations   for   large,   apparently   disease-free populations; there should be good evidence that benefits exceed risks by an appropriate margin. Hence, although the currently available trial results could well help inform personally  appropriate  judgments  by  individuals  about their own use of long-term aspirin, they do not seem to justify  general  guidelines  advocating  the  routine  use  of aspirin  in  all  apparently  healthy  individuals  above  a moderate level of risk of coronary heart disease.3¨C8
Contributors
All members of the writing committee contributed to the collection or analysis of the data, or both, to the interpretation of the results, and to the preparation of the report.

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