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To maximise the excess of benefit over hazard in primary prevention, most current guidelines3¨C5 recom- mend that aspirin be given to those with risk of coronary heart disease exceeding a particular threshold. These guidelines implicitly assume, however, either that the absolute risk of bleeding remains approximately constant irrespective of risk of coronary heart disease,4,5 or that it depends solely on age,3 whereas the present analyses showed that other risk factors for this disease are also risk factors for bleeding (table 3). As a result, even for people at moderately increased risk of coronary heart disease, the major absolute benefits and hazards of adding aspirin to a statin-based primary prevention regimen could still be approximately evenly balanced, as is suggested by the calculations in figure 7. A non-fatal stroke or heart attack is more likely to result in long-term disability than is a non-fatal gastrointestinal (or other extracranial) bleed, but in primary prevention the net absolute reduction in disabling or fatal occlusive events is likely to be small, and at least partially offset by a small increase in serious intracranial and extracranial bleeds. Thus, although it might cost little to add aspirin to any other drugs that are being used for the primary prevention of vascular disease, the additional effectiveness against fatal or disabling outcomes has not been reliably demonstrated for men or women of any age who do not yet have any relevant disease (and, if effectiveness is uncertain then detailed estimates of cost-effectiveness29 are of limited relevance). Moreover, drug safety (like vaccine safety) is of particular importance in public health recommendations for large, apparently disease-free populations; there should be good evidence that benefits exceed risks by an appropriate margin. Hence, although the currently available trial results could well help inform personally appropriate judgments by individuals about their own use of long-term aspirin, they do not seem to justify general guidelines advocating the routine use of aspirin in all apparently healthy individuals above a moderate level of risk of coronary heart disease.3¨C8 Contributors All members of the writing committee contributed to the collection or analysis of the data, or both, to the interpretation of the results, and to the preparation of the report. |
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