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yexuqing木虫之王 (文学泰斗)
太阳系系主任
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[交流]
Strategies for climate-resilient global wind and solar power systems
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Strategies for climate-resilient global wind and solar power systems 气候适应型全球风能和太阳能发电系统战略 ▲ 作者：Dongsheng Zheng, Xizhe Yan, Dan Tong, Steven J. Davis, Ken Caldeira, Yuanyuan Lin, et al. ▲链接： https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09266-7 ▲摘要： 气候变化可能会加剧未来风能和太阳能占比较高的电力系统中供需失衡的频率和严重程度。 研究组使用调度优化模型来评估在固定且高渗透的风能和太阳能发电背景下，与气候加剧供需缺口相关的每小时成本潜在增加情况。他们将进一步探讨各种策略，以增强面对未来气候变化的系统适应性。 结果发现，在大多数国家，极端时段（定义为每小时成本位于上十分位数的时段，即成本最高的10%时段）成本在未来可能会变得更高，主要是因为对灵活发电容量投资的需求增加。例如，在共享社会经济路径SSP1-2.6情景下，预计47个国家（未来发电量之和约占全球的43.5%）在极端时段的平均每小时成本将增加5%以上，其中最大增幅将达到23.7%。 通过因地制宜制定国别战略，协调执行多项措施以解决供需失衡问题，并提高系统灵活性，可大幅降低成本上涨的风险。该研究结果为在降低系统成本的同时建立未来的气候适应性电力系统提供了重要见解。 ▲ Abstract： Climate change may amplify the frequency and severity of supply–demand mismatches in future power systems with high shares of wind and solar energy. Here we use a dispatch optimization model to assess potential increases in hourly costs associated with the climate-intensified gaps under fixed, high penetrations of wind and solar energy generation. We further explore various strategies to enhance system resilience in the face of future climate change. We find that extreme periods—defined as hours in the upper decile of hourly costs (that is, the most costly 10% of hours)—are likely to become more costly in the future in most countries, mainly because of the increased need for investments in flexible energy capacity. For example, under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP1–2.6 scenario, 47 countries that together account for approximately 43.5% of global future electricity generation are projected to experience more than a 5% increase in average hourly costs during extreme periods, with the largest reaching up to 23.7%. The risk of rising costs could be substantially mitigated through tailored, country-specific strategies involving the coordinated implementation of multiple measures to address supply–demand imbalances and enhance system flexibility. Our findings provide important insights for building future climate-resilient power systems while reducing system costs. |
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