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北京石油化工学院2026年研究生招生接收调剂公告
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xkckklyy

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[ Last edited by xkckklyy on 2009-9-11 at 23:51 ]

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jw227

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ABSTRACT

Water is the natural resource, the economic resource, as well as the strategic resource, which is the basis of survival and development for human. Beihai City is a serious water shortage city in recent years. The problem of water shortage is serious increasingly in this City. Water resource is an important factor to determine the speed and scale of social development and the "bottleneck" to constrain the economic development in Beihai City. If developed still with the extensive way of using water, total consumption of water will be much higher than carrying capacity of water resource. Therefore, it is the urgent tasks of Beihai City currently to study on carrying capacity of water resource and resolve the problem of water resource.
"Operate on the basis of water and develop in accordance with water".  It is inevitable choice faced by Beihai City that sustainable socio-economic development of Beihai City is supported by the sustainable use of water. In this paper, for providing reference for designing the development planning of Beihai city, we evaluated carrying capacity of water resource, predicted carrying capacity in the future and put forward proposals to solve the problem of water resouce.
First is the establishment of composite, fuzzy, and comprehensive evaluation model for carrying capacity of water resource. Using the characteristic evaluation index system of Beihai city and 2007 as the current years, carrying capacity of water resource in Beihai City was evaluated. The result was  .
In the current  years, carrying capacity of water resource in Beihai was at a lower level, close to the critical state of quasi-non-bearing, and the relationship between people and water was in potential danger.
Then, combining gray prediction method with trend forecasting method, the balance of water supply and demand in Beihai was predicted in the planning year 2015 and 2020. If the level of using water was enhanced modestly and GDP of million Yuan was reduced, the carrying index of water would increase significantly, but still less than a supply-demand balance.
Finally, strategy of enlarging carrying capacity of water was pointed out. They are improving efficiency of using, adjusting the industrial structure, water reuse, utilization of brackish water, in which increasing efficiency of using is the core. Using several strategies together, supply and demand balance and harmony between human and water can achieve entirely.
When everybody has been starting with ourselves, cherished every drop of water, used water scientifically and efficiently, agriculture has become the water-saving agriculture, industry has become water-saving industry ... ... water resource would be the sustainable, society and economy could develop sustainablly, tomorrow's Beihai city would be beautiful!

[ Last edited by jw227 on 2009-9-10 at 20:48 ]
我是来消遣的
2楼2009-09-10 19:20:31
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hawel

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3楼2009-09-10 20:48:03
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syhman

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向前跑......
4楼2009-09-10 23:08:37
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zzy456

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5楼2009-09-11 09:30:51
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goodtimega

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xkckklyy(金币+10,VIP+0):辛苦了! 9-11 21:13
Abstract

As a natural, economic resources, and strategic resource, water is indeispensible for the survival and development of human. In this regard, the increasing water shortage in Beihai city in recent years leads to serious concerns.  Water resource is an important factor to the rate and scale of social development of Beihai city and can be   the bottleneck for future development. The present way of water consumption apparently can not be sustained since the consumption far surpasses the capacity. As such, the study of carrying capacity to address the challenge of water resources stands for a pivitol priority.

"Plan in accordance with the resources” is thus the natural choice to support the sustainable use of water resources, and socio-economic development of Beihai City.  To this end, we have evaluated and projected the carrying capacity, and proposed strategies to address the problem of water resouce in Beihai. First of all, in order to provide insight to the strategic development, we examine a composite, fuzzy, and comprehensive evaluation model for carrying capacity of water resource in conformity with realistic characteristics of Beihai city, based on the evaluation index system to the status quo in 2007 amd the right to assess the water resources carrying capacity of Beihai City. Our results indicate that according to the status quo of water carrying capacity of years, Beihai is capable of carrying a relatively low level, close to the critical state of quasi-non-bearing. As a consequence, the balance between people and water remains a crucial challenge.

Then, we employ a combination of gray prediction and trend forecasting methods to project the balance between water supply and demand for the planning year 2015 and 2020, respectively. Beihai City. Under the provision that the water level to maintain the status quo, there will be a servere water shortag for the planning year. On the other hand, modest increases in water levels and lower million GDP quantity of water can significantly increase the water load factor, but still fall short to a supply-demand balance.

Finally, we demonstrate that the predominant strategy is to enhance the efficienty of the water consuption. The resultant increase of bearing capacity amounts to adjusting the industrial structure, water recycling, and brackish water utilization. In addition, we outline a number of strategies to balance water resources supply and demand for harmony between human and water.

Starting from each individual, cherishing every drop of water, efficientiverly consuming water, along with water-saving agriculture and industry, the sustainable use of water resources is feasible with sustainable socio-economic development. The future of Beihai city will be bright.

Key words: water resources carrying capacity; composite fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model
6楼2009-09-11 20:17:43
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