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论文题目:Stochastic Time Series Analysis for Energy System Based on Markov Chain Model
     doi:10.1007/s11036-016-0796-3


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paperhunter: 金币+1, 鼓励交流 2017-07-14 21:57:36
hotcoal: 金币+10 2017-07-15 22:01:36
恭喜,已经被SCI收录!

Stochastic Time Series Analysis for Energy System Based on Markov Chain Model
作者:Ruan, ZS (Ruan, Zhengshun)[ 1,2 ] ; Luo, AH (Luo, Aihua)[ 3 ] ; Yao, H (Yao, Hong)[ 1 ]
MOBILE NETWORKS & APPLICATIONS
卷: 22  期: 3  页: 427-434  特刊: SI
DOI: 10.1007/s11036-016-0796-3
出版年: JUN 2017
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摘要
The markov prediction and analysis is a method based on markov chain theory, according to the present states and tendency of some variables, the possible states in a given period in the future will be forecasted. To determine the transition probability matrix is the crux of this method. This paper applies stochastic time series based on markov chain model to forecast the developing trends of China's energy consumption structure under the influence of energy policy. This model is adopted to forecast the total amount of energy consumption and the trends of energy production and consumption structures. China's energy consumption during 2006-2011 are simulated and its trends in 2015 and 2020 are forecast through this model. Results demonstrate that this model can effectively simulate and forecast the total amount and structures of primary energy consumption. Although the growth rate of energy consumption in China has decreased under the energy saving policy, but it not enough to achieve the objective of carbon reduction.
关键词
作者关键词:Markov chain; Transition probability matrix; Carbon emission
KeyWords PlusEMAND
作者信息
通讯作者地址: Luo, AH (通讯作者)
显示增强组织信息的名称        South Cent Univ Nationalities, Sch Math & Stat, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, Peoples R China.
地址:
显示增强组织信息的名称        [ 1 ] Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol, State Key Lab Coal Combust, Wuhan, Peoples R China
显示增强组织信息的名称        [ 2 ] Wuhan Inst Technol, Sch Sci, Wuhan, Peoples R China
显示增强组织信息的名称        [ 3 ] South Cent Univ Nationalities, Sch Math & Stat, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, Peoples R China
电子邮件地址:rzhengs@wit.edu.cn; luoah@foxmail.com; hyao@hust.edu.cn
基金资助致谢
基金资助机构        授权号
Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province of China        
2014CFB917
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出版商
SPRINGER, VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS
类别 / 分类
研究方向:Computer Science; Telecommunications
Web of Science 类别:Computer Science, Hardware & Architecture; Computer Science, Information Systems; Telecommunications
文献信息
文献类型:Article
语种:English
入藏号: WOS:000403326500009
ISSN: 1383-469X
eISSN: 1572-8153
期刊信息
目录: Current Contents Connect
Impact Factor (影响因子): Journal Citation Reports
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