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Will-Lee

½ð³æ (СÓÐÃûÆø)

[ÇóÖú] Çóǰ±²°ïæÓÃ1stOptÄã¸öÒ»ÏÂÊý¾Ý£¬Ð´ÂÛÎļ±Óã¬ÏÈл¹ý

x=0.125, 0.375, 1, 3, 7, 14, 21
y1=0.121, 0.07, 0.036, 0.197, 0.157, 0.190, 0.247
y2=0.136, 0.067, 0.03, 0.175, 0.134, 0.164, 0.219£»

y1=a1*exp(-p*x)+(-k1-a1)*exp(-q*x)+k1;
y2=a2*exp(-p*x)+b*exp(-q*x)+(-k2-a2-b)*exp(-c*x)+k2¡£

ÒªÇóÕâÁ½¸ö·½³Ì¹²Ïí²ÎÊýpºÍq£¨¼´£¬ÕâÁ½¸ö½âÓй«¹²µÄ²ÎÊýp,q£©£¬Í¬Ê±¶ÔÕâÁ½¸ö·½³Ì½øÐÐÄâºÏ¡£ÂÛÎļ±Ó㬺󱲲»Ê¤¸Ð¼¤¡£

[ Last edited by Will-Lee on 2013-4-17 at 09:47 ]
»Ø¸´´ËÂ¥
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dingd

Ìú¸Ëľ³æ (Ö°Òµ×÷¼Ò)

¡¾´ð°¸¡¿Ó¦Öú»ØÌû

¡ï ¡ï
¸Ðл²ÎÓ룬ӦÖúÖ¸Êý +1
csgt0: ½ð±Ò+2, лл 2013-04-17 14:08:29
¹«Ê½Ó¦¸Ã¿ÉÒÔ»¯¼òϰɣ¬7×éÊý¾Ý£¬8¸ö²ÎÊý£¬½á¹û²»Î¨Ò»£º
1£º
¾ù·½²î(RMSE): 0.0366816872715916
²Ð²îƽ·½ºÍ(SSE): 0.0188376465352719
Ïà¹ØÏµÊý(R): 0.97092490177028
Ïà¹ØÏµÊý֮ƽ·½(R^2): 0.942695164877628
¾ö¶¨ÏµÊý(DC): 0.942695164877628
Fͳ¼Æ(F-Statistic): -0.407553856793672

²ÎÊý                  ×î¼Ñ¹ÀËã
--------------------        -------------
a1        -0.0715119190800517
p        19188.0541782803
k1        0.2168405771542
q        0.228631851923395
a2        -0.251784621263395
b        -0.167788449604747
k2        0.196740312405319
c        6.19744351252297

2£º
¾ù·½²î(RMSE): 0.0366816872715916
²Ð²îƽ·½ºÍ(SSE): 0.0188376465352719
Ïà¹ØÏµÊý(R): 0.97092490177028
Ïà¹ØÏµÊý֮ƽ·½(R^2): 0.942695164877628
¾ö¶¨ÏµÊý(DC): 0.942695164877628
Fͳ¼Æ(F-Statistic): -0.407553856660192

²ÎÊý                  ×î¼Ñ¹ÀËã
--------------------        -------------
a1        -0.0715119197388559
p        8709.26578127736
k1        0.216840576740686
q        0.228631852581812
a2        -0.251784628311086
b        -0.16778845043493
k2        0.196740312651761
c        6.19744356226596

3£º
¾ù·½²î(RMSE): 0.0366816872715916
²Ð²îƽ·½ºÍ(SSE): 0.0188376465352719
Ïà¹ØÏµÊý(R): 0.97092490177028
Ïà¹ØÏµÊý֮ƽ·½(R^2): 0.942695164877628
¾ö¶¨ÏµÊý(DC): 0.942695164877628
Fͳ¼Æ(F-Statistic): -0.407553855552041

²ÎÊý                  ×î¼Ñ¹ÀËã
--------------------        -------------
a1        -0.0715119191198544
p        1209.82711843774
k1        0.216840576170168
q        0.22863185804796
a2        -0.251784622436768
b        -0.167788450839218
k2        0.196740311949434
c        6.1974433956109
2Â¥2013-04-17 10:19:38
ÒÑÔÄ   »Ø¸´´ËÂ¥   ¹Ø×¢TA ¸øTA·¢ÏûÏ¢ ËÍTAºì»¨ TAµÄ»ØÌû

Will-Lee

½ð³æ (СÓÐÃûÆø)

ÒýÓûØÌû:
2Â¥: Originally posted by dingd at 2013-04-17 10:19:38
¹«Ê½Ó¦¸Ã¿ÉÒÔ»¯¼òϰɣ¬7×éÊý¾Ý£¬8¸ö²ÎÊý£¬½á¹û²»Î¨Ò»£º
1£º
¾ù·½²î(RMSE): 0.0366816872715916
²Ð²îƽ·½ºÍ(SSE): 0.0188376465352719
Ïà¹ØÏµÊý(R): 0.97092490177028
Ïà¹ØÏµÊý֮ƽ·½(R^2): 0.942695164877628 ...

Â鷳ǰ±²Á˰¡£¬ÉÏÎç±È½Ï´Ò棬·¢µÄÄǸö¹«Ê½ÓÐÒ»¸ö²ÎÊýûÓмò»¯£¬ÏÖÔÚÖØÐ¼ÆËãÁËһϣ¬°Ñ²ÎÊýcÏûÈ¥ÁË£¬
c=k1^2*p*q/(k1+k2)*[a1*(q-p)+q*k1]
ǰ±²°ïÎÒÖØÐÂÄâºÏһϹþ£¬Ì«¸ÐлÁË¡£ÎÒ»¹ÓÐÁíÒ»Ì×Êý¾Ý£¬¹«Ê½¶¼ÊÇÓÃÕâ¸ö½øÐй²ÏíÄâºÏ£º
y1=a1*exp(-p*x)+(-k1-a1)*exp(-q*x)+k1;
y2=a2*exp(-p*x)+b*exp(-q*x)+(-k2-a2-b)*exp(-c*x)+k2¡£
Êý¾Ý1£º
x=0.125, 0.375, 1, 3, 7, 14, 21
y1=0.121, 0.07, 0.036, 0.197, 0.157, 0.190, 0.247
y2=0.136, 0.067, 0.03, 0.175, 0.134, 0.164, 0.219
Êý¾Ý2£º
x=0.125, 0.375, 1, 3, 7, 14, 21
y1=0.042,0.081,0.003,0.014,0.007,0.01,0.007
y2=0.034,0.069,0.004,0.017,0.011,0.013,0.01
·Ç³£¸Ðлǰ±²°¡£¬ÁíÍâÏëÎÊһϣ¬Ç°±²·½±ã¸æËßÎÒ£¬ÄúÓõÄ1stoptÊÇʲô°æ±¾µÄÂ𣿸м¤ÌéÁã°¡£¡
3Â¥2013-04-17 17:11:30
ÒÑÔÄ   »Ø¸´´ËÂ¥   ¹Ø×¢TA ¸øTA·¢ÏûÏ¢ ËÍTAºì»¨ TAµÄ»ØÌû

dingd

Ìú¸Ëľ³æ (Ö°Òµ×÷¼Ò)

¡¾´ð°¸¡¿Ó¦Öú»ØÌû

¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï ¡ï
Will-Lee: ½ð±Ò+40, ¡ï¡ï¡ï¡ï¡ï×î¼Ñ´ð°¸ 2013-04-17 22:00:49
csgt0: ½ð±Ò+2, лл 2013-04-18 14:28:08
Êý¾Ý1£º
¾ù·½²î(RMSE): 0.0366860912198703
²Ð²îƽ·½ºÍ(SSE): 0.018842170045897
Ïà¹ØÏµÊý(R): 0.970917816614817
Ïà¹ØÏµÊý֮ƽ·½(R^2): 0.942681406620082
¾ö¶¨ÏµÊý(DC): 0.942681404186766
Fͳ¼Æ(F-Statistic): 0

²ÎÊý                  ×î¼Ñ¹ÀËã
--------------------        -------------
a1        -0.0716981074946548
p        58.3099186235832
k1        0.217229689427639
q        0.225630583468914
a2        -0.254590627940963
b        -0.167186991575341
k2        0.197032981018483

====== Êä³ö½á¹û =====

Îļþ£ºÊý¾ÝÎļþ-1
No        Ä¿±êy1        ¼ÆËãy1        Ä¿±êy2        ¼ÆËãy2
1        0.121        0.0756963295350097        0.136        0.136388627375288
2        0.07        0.083505197585773        0.067        0.064461306895123
3        0.036        0.101093617494315        0.03        0.0640223025541952
4        0.197        0.143271393143855        0.175        0.112069533911774
5        0.157        0.187236239060414        0.134        0.162576441295238
6        0.19        0.211048164751123        0.164        0.189931632292051
7        0.247        0.215955703045328        0.219        0.195569422746543

Êý¾Ý2£º
¾ù·½²î(RMSE): 0.0102388830426604
²Ð²îƽ·½ºÍ(SSE): 0.0014676861634579
Ïà¹ØÏµÊý(R): 0.95095898439747
Ïà¹ØÏµÊý֮ƽ·½(R^2): 0.904322990006267
¾ö¶¨ÏµÊý(DC): 0.904322935889315
Fͳ¼Æ(F-Statistic): 0

²ÎÊý                  ×î¼Ñ¹ÀËã
--------------------        -------------
a1        -140.208201956267
p        3.82503293783713
k1        0.00685029735039128
q        3.820230451081
a2        -114.246613332228
b        114.238791246974
k2        0.0246065387831164

====== Êä³ö½á¹û =====

Îļþ£ºÊý¾ÝÎļþ-1
No        Ä¿±êy1        ¼ÆËãy1        Ä¿±êy2        ¼ÆËãy2
1        0.042        0.0547962273963608        0.034        0.0455324496547414
2        0.081        0.0654316902880739        0.069        0.0551172638680705
3        0.003        0.0214263697654643        0.004        0.0199040703785599
4        0.014        0.00687135622292324        0.017        0.00858973741779155
5        0.007        0.00685029736165498        0.011        0.00952134780710019
6        0.01        0.00685029735039128        0.013        0.0110485765490737
7        0.007        0.00685029735039128        0.01        0.0124211882548926
4Â¥2013-04-17 17:21:34
ÒÑÔÄ   »Ø¸´´ËÂ¥   ¹Ø×¢TA ¸øTA·¢ÏûÏ¢ ËÍTAºì»¨ TAµÄ»ØÌû

Will-Lee

½ð³æ (СÓÐÃûÆø)

ÒýÓûØÌû:
4Â¥: Originally posted by dingd at 2013-04-17 17:21:34
Êý¾Ý1£º
¾ù·½²î(RMSE): 0.0366860912198703
²Ð²îƽ·½ºÍ(SSE): 0.018842170045897
Ïà¹ØÏµÊý(R): 0.970917816614817
Ïà¹ØÏµÊý֮ƽ·½(R^2): 0.942681406620082
¾ö¶¨ÏµÊý(DC): 0.942681404186766
Fͳ¼Æ(F-Statist ...

·Ç³£¸Ðлǰ±²µÄ°ïÖú°¡£¡ÎÒ»¹ÓÐÒ»¸öÒÉÎÊÏëÇë½ÌÄú£¡ÕâÑùͬʱÄâºÏy1,y2µÃµ½ÁËÏà¹ØÏµÊý֮ƽ·½(R^2)ÒÔ¼°¸÷¸ö²ÎÊýÖµ£¬ÄÇÎÒÏÖÔڰѲÎÊý·Ö±ð´úÈëy1,y2»áµÃµ½ËüÃǸ÷×Ô½âÎö½âµÄ±í´ïʽ£¬´ËʱËüÃǵıí´ïʽÓëËüÃǵÄʵ¼ÊÊý¾Ýµ¥¶ÀµÄÏà¹ØÐÔÊDz»ÊDz»Óÿ¼ÂÇÁ˰¡£¿¾ÍÊÇ˵£¬¹²ÏíÄâºÏºó£¬y1µÄ±í´ïʽºÍy1µÄÊý¾Ý£»ÒÔ¼°y2µÄ±í´ïʽºÍy2µÄÊý¾ÝÖ®¼ä£¬¸÷×ÔµÄÕâ¸öÏà¹ØÐÔ¾ÍÎ޹ؽôÒªÁËÊÇÂð£¿Ö»Òª¿¼ÂÇÕâ¸öÈí¼þÊä³öµÄÁ½¸öͬʱÄâºÏµÃµ½µÄÕâ¸ö(R^2)ÊÇÂð£¿Çëǰ±²Ö¸½Ì°¡£¡
ÁíÍ⣬ÎÒÔÚÂÛÎÄÀïÐèҪдʹÓõÄÈí¼þ°æ±¾£¬Âé·³Äú¿ÉÒÔ¸æËßÎÒÄúÔËÐеÄ1st0ptµÄ°æ±¾Âð£¿Íò·Ö¸Ðл£¡£¡£¡
5Â¥2013-04-18 09:10:44
ÒÑÔÄ   »Ø¸´´ËÂ¥   ¹Ø×¢TA ¸øTA·¢ÏûÏ¢ ËÍTAºì»¨ TAµÄ»ØÌû

dingd

Ìú¸Ëľ³æ (Ö°Òµ×÷¼Ò)

¡¾´ð°¸¡¿Ó¦Öú»ØÌû

¹²ÏíģʽϵÄÏà¹ØÏµÊýÊÇËûÃÇµÄÆ½¾ùÏà¹ØÏµÊý£¨×ÜÌå²Ð²îƽ·½ºÍ×îСʱ£©£¬ËûÃÇÒ²Óи÷×ÔµÄÏà¹ØÏµÊý¡£ÓõÄ5.0°æ¡£

» ±¾ÌûÒÑ»ñµÃµÄºì»¨£¨×îÐÂ10¶ä£©

6Â¥2013-04-18 09:29:02
ÒÑÔÄ   »Ø¸´´ËÂ¥   ¹Ø×¢TA ¸øTA·¢ÏûÏ¢ ËÍTAºì»¨ TAµÄ»ØÌû

Will-Lee

½ð³æ (СÓÐÃûÆø)

Ëͺ컨һ¶ä
ÒýÓûØÌû:
6Â¥: Originally posted by dingd at 2013-04-18 09:29:02
¹²ÏíģʽϵÄÏà¹ØÏµÊýÊÇËûÃÇµÄÆ½¾ùÏà¹ØÏµÊý£¨×ÜÌå²Ð²îƽ·½ºÍ×îСʱ£©£¬ËûÃÇÒ²Óи÷×ÔµÄÏà¹ØÏµÊý¡£ÓõÄ5.0°æ¡£

¶î£¬Ç°±²£¬ÄǸ÷×ÔµÄÏà¹ØÏµÊýÊDz»ÊDz»ÓùÜÁ˰¡£¬·Ç³£¸Ðл°¡£¡£¡£¡
7Â¥2013-04-18 10:36:46
ÒÑÔÄ   »Ø¸´´ËÂ¥   ¹Ø×¢TA ¸øTA·¢ÏûÏ¢ ËÍTAºì»¨ TAµÄ»ØÌû

Will-Lee

½ð³æ (СÓÐÃûÆø)

ÒýÓûØÌû:
6Â¥: Originally posted by dingd at 2013-04-18 09:29:02
¹²ÏíģʽϵÄÏà¹ØÏµÊýÊÇËûÃÇµÄÆ½¾ùÏà¹ØÏµÊý£¨×ÜÌå²Ð²îƽ·½ºÍ×îСʱ£©£¬ËûÃÇÒ²Óи÷×ÔµÄÏà¹ØÏµÊý¡£ÓõÄ5.0°æ¡£

ǰ±²£¬ÕæÊDz»ºÃÒâ˼£¬»¹ÏëÔÙÂé·³Äúһϣ¬ÎÒµÄÊý¾Ý»¹ÓÐÁ½×飬Âé·³Äܲ»ÄÜÔÙ°ïæÄâºÏÒ»ÏÂѽ£¡ÄâºÏ¹«Ê½Í¬ÉÏ£¬»¹Êǹ²ÏíÄâºÏ¡£
y1=a1*exp(-p*x)+(-k1-a1)*exp(-q*x)+k1;
y2=a2*exp(-p*x)+b*exp(-q*x)+(-k2-a2-b)*exp(-c*x)+k2¡£
ÆäÖУ¬c=k1^2*p*q/(k1+k2)*[a1*(q-p)+q*k1]
Êý¾Ý1£º
x=0.125, 0.375, 1, 3, 7, 14, 21
y1=0.2756, 0.3134, 0.3157, 0.3505, 0.3662, 0.3583, 0.3875
y2=0.4040, 0.3459, 0.3341, 0.3607, 0.3905, 0.3817, 0.3994
Êý¾Ý2£º
x=0.125, 0.375, 1, 3, 7, 14, 21
y1=0.0239,0.0180,0.0144,0.0222,0.0179,0.0272,0.0306
y2=0.0274,0.0161,0.0124,0.0208,0.0153,0.0284,0.0326
8Â¥2013-04-22 15:14:16
ÒÑÔÄ   »Ø¸´´ËÂ¥   ¹Ø×¢TA ¸øTA·¢ÏûÏ¢ ËÍTAºì»¨ TAµÄ»ØÌû

dingd

Ìú¸Ëľ³æ (Ö°Òµ×÷¼Ò)

¡¾´ð°¸¡¿Ó¦Öú»ØÌû

¡ï ¡ï
csgt0: ½ð±Ò+2, лл 2013-04-22 17:57:41
ÄãµÄ¹«Ê½Ó¦¸Ã¿ÉÒÔ¼ò»¯£¬·ñÔòÓйýÄâºÏÏÖÏ󣬲ÎÊý×éÖµ²»Î¨Ò»£º
1×飺
¾ù·½²î(RMSE): 0.00687011513831697
²Ð²îƽ·½ºÍ(SSE): 0.000660778748192249
Ïà¹ØÏµÊý(R): 0.999815575392267
Ïà¹ØÏµÊý֮ƽ·½(R^2): 0.999631184796969
¾ö¶¨ÏµÊý(DC): 0.999631184648844
Fͳ¼Æ(F-Statistic): 0

²ÎÊý                  ×î¼Ñ¹ÀËã
--------------------        -------------
a1        -0.300734016047116
p        19.1102628357005
k1        0.373503194632404
q        0.339451848643002
a2        -0.666954724006504
b        -0.0840434437242323
k2        0.392912542081804

====== Êä³ö½á¹û =====

Îļþ£ºÊý¾ÝÎļþ-1
No        Ä¿±êy1        ¼ÆËãy1        Ä¿±êy2        ¼ÆËãy2
1        0.2756        0.276167405829176        0.404        0.403933236944877
2        0.3134        0.309199589032032        0.3459        0.346200087356836
3        0.3157        0.321679852144116        0.3341        0.333452906735301
4        0.3505        0.347219810735023        0.3607        0.362557024759597
5        0.3662        0.366742473545857        0.3905        0.385104369814111
6        0.3583        0.372875080498114        0.3817        0.392187113048196
7        0.3875        0.37344483882085        0.3994        0.392845145095062

2×飺
¾ù·½²î(RMSE): 0.00296703772967042
²Ð²îƽ·½ºÍ(SSE): 0.000123246380450029
Ïà¹ØÏµÊý(R): 0.991512959228802
Ïà¹ØÏµÊý֮ƽ·½(R^2): 0.983097948318655
¾ö¶¨ÏµÊý(DC): 0.983097948318655
Fͳ¼Æ(F-Statistic): 0

²ÎÊý                  ×î¼Ñ¹ÀËã
--------------------        -------------
a1        -0.0185651799515888
p        1328.31210450058
k1        0.00496305233986228
q        -0.0301265651432066
a2        -0.0511142884204575
b        0.0220317490891455
k2        -0.0079118107122998

====== Êä³ö½á¹û =====

Îļþ£ºÊý¾ÝÎļþ-1
No        Ä¿±êy1        ¼ÆËãy1        Ä¿±êy2        ¼ÆËãy2
1        0.0239        0.0186164996943609        0.0274        0.0274044276079725
2        0.018        0.0187197207863289        0.0161        0.0160513222675059
3        0.0144        0.0189812005054385        0.0124        0.0148035061202128
4        0.0222        0.0198518026936426        0.0208        0.0162039174603847
5        0.0179        0.0217585722452484        0.0153        0.019292365791544
6        0.0272        0.0257016821295894        0.0284        0.0256791318977402
7        0.0306        0.0305705219495069        0.0326        0.0335653288464577
9Â¥2013-04-22 15:56:59
ÒÑÔÄ   »Ø¸´´ËÂ¥   ¹Ø×¢TA ¸øTA·¢ÏûÏ¢ ËÍTAºì»¨ TAµÄ»ØÌû

Will-Lee

½ð³æ (СÓÐÃûÆø)

ÒýÓûØÌû:
9Â¥: Originally posted by dingd at 2013-04-22 15:56:59
ÄãµÄ¹«Ê½Ó¦¸Ã¿ÉÒÔ¼ò»¯£¬·ñÔòÓйýÄâºÏÏÖÏ󣬲ÎÊý×éÖµ²»Î¨Ò»£º
1×飺
¾ù·½²î(RMSE): 0.00687011513831697
²Ð²îƽ·½ºÍ(SSE): 0.000660778748192249
Ïà¹ØÏµÊý(R): 0.999815575392267
Ïà¹ØÏµÊý֮ƽ·½(R^2): 0.99963 ...

·Ç³£¸Ðлǰ±²Ö¸½Ì£¬ÎÒ°ÑÄ£ÐͲÎÊýÓÖÖØÐ¼ÆËã¼ò»¯ÁËһϣ¬Ï£ÍûÄúÄÜÔÙ°ïæÄâºÏÒ»´Î£¬Ì«¸ÐлÁË£¡
y1=a1*exp(-p*x)+(-k1-a1)*exp(-q*x)+k1;
y2=a2*exp(-p*x)+b*exp(-q*x)+(-k2-a2-b)*exp(-c*x)+k2¡£
ÆäÖУ¬c=k1^2*p*q/(k1+k2)*[a1*(q-p)+q*k1]
a2=[q*(k1+k2)*(a1*q-a1*p+q*k1)^2-k1^2*k2*p*q^2+k1*k2*p*q*(a1*q-a1*p+q*k1)]/p*[k1^2*q-(k1+k2)*(a1*q-a1*p+q*k1)]*(q-p)
b=[p*(k1+k2)*(a1*q-a1*p+q*k1)^2-k1^2*k2*q*p^2+k1*k2*p*q*(a1*q-a1*p+q*k1)]/q*[(k1+k2)*(a1*q-a1*p+q*k1)-k1^2*p]*(q-p)
Êý¾Ý1£º
x=0.125, 0.375, 1, 3, 7, 14, 21
y1=0.2756, 0.3134, 0.3157, 0.3505, 0.3662, 0.3583, 0.3875
y2=0.4040, 0.3459, 0.3341, 0.3607, 0.3905, 0.3817, 0.3994
Êý¾Ý2£º
x=0.125, 0.375, 1, 3, 7, 14, 21
y1=0.0239,0.0180,0.0144,0.0222,0.0179,0.0272,0.0306
y2=0.0274,0.0161,0.0124,0.0208,0.0153,0.0284,0.0326
10Â¥2013-04-23 11:04:30
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