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xinmeng8803荣誉版主 (著名写手)
小木虫博士
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【讨论】【有奖活动】国内外油藏模拟现状讨论
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为活跃地学版学术氛围，加强学科内的联系与沟通，使更多的地学的朋友了解相关学科的国内外研究进展，特此举办系列讨论活动 活动方式：跟帖 讨论内容：限制在油藏模拟，包括国内外，希望能推荐此方面的牛人和实验室 奖励参与有奖，按照跟帖内容奖励5-10金币，禁止恶意灌水 [ Last edited by xinmeng8803 on 2009-12-8 at 17:21 ] |
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小木虫(金币+0.5):给个红包，谢谢回帖交流
xinmeng8803(金币+3,VIP+0):感谢你的积极参与！ 12-9 21:34
小木虫(金币+0.5):给个红包，谢谢回帖交流
xinmeng8803(金币+3,VIP+0):感谢你的积极参与！ 12-9 21:34
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我也来凑个热闹！ 我研究能源安全，石油问题是关键。而我一贯认为，当前的数据——社科研究的基础，存在检验的必要。我自己需要知道一些相关的自然科学知识，才能做出更加正确的选择。研究基础才更加坚实！ 贴点资料！ FIELD-BY-FIELD ANALYSIS OF OIL PRODUCTION Is decline accelerating? HIGHLIGHTS The future rate of decline in output from producing oilfields as they mature is a critical determinant of the amount of new capacity and investment that will be needed globally to meet projected demand. A detailed field-by-field analysis of historical production trends reveals that the size of reserves and physiographic situation (onshore/offshore) are the main factors in explaining the shape of an oilfield’s production profile. The larger the reserves, the lower the peak relative to reserves and the slower the decline once a field has come off plateau. Rates are also lower for onshore than offshore (especially deepwater) fields. Based on data for 580 of the world’s largest fields that have passed their production peak, the observed decline rate — averaged across all fields and weighted by their production over their whole lives — is 5.1%. Decline rates are lowest for the biggest fields: they average 3.4% for super-giant fields, 6.5% for giant fields and 10.4% for large fields. The average rate of observed post-plateau decline, based on our data sub-set of 479 fields, is 5.8%. Observed decline rates vary markedly by region. Post-peak and post-plateau rates are lowest in the Middle East and highest in the North Sea. This reflects, to a large extent, differences in the average size of fields, which in turn is related to the extent to which overall reserves are depleted and their physiographic location. In general, observed decline rates are also higher the younger the field, mainly because these fields tend to be smaller and are more often found offshore. Investment and production policies also affect decline rates, especially in OPEC countries. The average size of the fields analysed is significantly larger than that of all the fields in the world, as our database contains all the super-giant fields and most of the giant fields. The decline rates for the fields not included in our dataset are, on average, likely to be at least as high as for the large fields in our database. On this basis, we estimate that the average production-weighted observed decline rate worldwide is 6.7% for post-peak fields. The average annual natural, or underlying, decline rate for the world as a whole — stripping out the effects of ongoing and periodic investment — is estimated a 9% for post-peak fields. In other words, the decline in production from existing fields would have been around one-third faster had there been no capital spending on those fields once they had passed their peak. Our Reference Scenario projections imply a one percentage-point increase in the global average natural decline rate to over 10% per year by 2030 as all regions experience a drop in average field size and most see a shift in production to offshore fields. This means that total upstream investment in some countries will need to rise, in some cases significantly, just to offset decline. |
24楼2009-12-09 18:32:36
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